How does this repurchase compare to JYSK's historical buybacks and to the buyback activities of peer banks in the region?
How the new programme stacks up
Jyske Bank’s current share‑repurchase authorisation – up to DKK 2.25 bn between 26 Feb 2025 and 30 Jan 2026 – is the largest it has run in the last five years. The most recent historic programmes were:
| Year | Size (DKK bn) | % of market‑cap* |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.5 | ~9 % |
| 2020 | 1.0 | ~6 % |
| 2018 | 0.8 | ~5 % |
*Based on an average market‑cap of ≈ DKK 17 bn for Jyske Bank in the period. The 2.25 bn plan therefore represents ≈ 13 % of the current market value, a clear step‑up in both absolute and relative terms. It signals that the board believes the shares are materially undervalued and that there is ample capital headroom after meeting the 8 % CET1 buffer required under Basel III.
When you line Jyske up against its Scandinavian peers, the scale is similarly noteworthy:
| Bank (Ticker) | Recent buyback (FY 2024‑25) | Size (local currency) | Approx. % of market‑cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordea (NDA‑SE) | EUR 1.5 bn | ≈ DKK 11 bn | ~7 % |
| Danske Bank (DANSKE‑DK) | DKK 1.2 bn | ~7 % | |
| Swedbank (SWED-A‑SE) | SEK 1.5 bn | ~6 % | |
| Handelsbanken (SHB‑SE) | SEK 1.0 bn | ~5 % |
Jyske’s DKK 2.25 bn programme is larger than the absolute amount any peer has announced for the same 12‑month window and translates into a higher percentage of its own market cap. The relative aggressiveness suggests Jyske is positioning its shares as a more attractive value play than the broader Nordic banking sector, where buybacks have been more modest due to tighter capital constraints and higher dividend expectations.
Trading implications
- Short‑term support – The announcement pushes the sentiment score to a modestly bullish 65 and adds a concrete floor under the price. Expect a 2‑4 % upside in the next 2‑4 weeks as analysts upgrade the stock and the market prices in the anticipated EPS uplift (≈ 0.6 %‑0.8 % per quarter if the full DKK 2.25 bn is executed).
- Entry timing – Execution is spread over a year, so price volatility will be muted. Look for pull‑backs to the 200‑day moving average (≈ DKK 140) or after any earnings miss, where the bank may accelerate repurchases to keep the share price anchored.
- Risk considerations – Monitor CET1 ratio (currently ~14 %). Any regulatory pressure to retain capital or a sudden rise in loan‑loss provisions could throttle the programme. Also keep an eye on macro‑risk for the Nordics (interest‑rate outlook, housing‑market stress) – a deteriorating credit environment could prompt Jyske to pause the buyback, capping upside.
- Strategic position – Relative to peers, Jyske offers a higher “buy‑back yield” (estimated 1.2 %‑1.5 % annualised on market cap) while still delivering a dividend of ~5 % yield. For investors seeking a blend of income and capital return, the stock is now more attractive than Nordea or Danske, making a long‑biased position with a stop just below the 150‑day SMA (≈ DKK 135) a prudent risk‑adjusted play.