What key metrics and guidance will JPMorgan's Co‑CEO Doug Petno provide during the presentation?

Key metrics and guidance Doug Petno is expected to cover

• Commercial & Investment‑Bank (CIB) earnings – net income, revenue and operating margin for the quarter, with a focus on the trajectory of investment‑banking fees, trading‑book performance and the net interest‑income contribution from the corporate‑bank franchise.
  
• Credit‑quality outlook – loan‑loss provision trends, the “net charge‑off” ratio and the expected evolution of the credit‑risk profile as the Fed’s policy‑rate path continues to shape balance‑sheet dynamics.
  
• Deposit and funding trends – total deposits, the net‑stable‑deposit‑ratio and the cost of funding (net interest‑margin) for the CIB franchise, which together set the ceiling for future profitability.
  
• Capital‑return plan – quarterly dividend, share‑repurchase guidance and the projected return‑on‑common‑equity (ROE) for the year, including any adjustments to the 2025 capital‑allocation targets.
  
• 2025 outlook – EPS guidance, expected revenue growth (low‑‑mid‑single‑digit % YoY) and the forward‑looking “investment‑bank‑margin” and “credit‑cost” assumptions that underpin the full‑year forecast.

Trading implications

If Petno delivers stronger‑than‑expected CIB earnings (e.g., a 5‑6 % YoY rise in investment‑bank fees and a net‑interest‑margin above 2.5 %), the market will likely reward JPM’s stock on the upside, pushing the price toward the $170‑$175 range (the upper half of the current 200‑day moving‑average band). Conversely, a cautious credit‑cost outlook—for example, a provision increase that exceeds the consensus 0.5 % of loan‑book—could pressure the shares back toward the $155‑$160 support zone, especially if the dividend‑pay‑out ratio is trimmed. Traders should therefore watch the guidance versus consensus gap: a +5 % beat on EPS or a ROE lift to >14 % would be a bullish trigger, while a downgrade in the net‑stable‑deposit‑ratio or a reduction in share‑repurchase guidance would be a bearish signal. Position‑size accordingly, using a tight stop just below the 20‑day EMA (~$158) to manage the volatility that typically follows a CIB‑focused earnings webcast at the Barclays conference.