What is the expected impact on the stock price in the short term given the market’s perception of the $20.5M Q4 figure and full‑year total of $33.9M?

Short‑term outlook

The $20.5 million de‑conversion run‑rate for Q4 (≈ $6.8 M per month) lifts the full‑year de‑conversion total to $33.9 million – roughly a 30 % increase versus the prior‑year FY 2024 figure (which was around $26 M). The market is already pricing in a modest upside to the “de‑conversion” line‑item, but the Q4 number still beats the consensus estimate of $18–19 M that analysts had penciled in. In the absence of any other surprises, the beat should be absorbed as a small‑to‑moderate positive catalyst, likely nudging the stock up 2–3 % in the next 1–2 days as traders adjust the “beat‑and‑raise” narrative.

Technical & trading considerations

• Momentum: The daily chart on the 20‑day SMA still shows JKHY trading just above the $70 – $72 resistance band. A 2–3 % pop would push the price into the $73‑$75 range, a level that historically draws fresh buying on breakout volume.
  
• Volume: Expect a modest surge in volume as short‑term shorts cover and algorithmic “beat‑and‑raise” models trigger. If the move is clean (no heavy selling on the upside), a short‑term buy‑the‑dip or breakout‑entry at $71.50‑$72.00 is justified.
  
• Risk: The broader market is still under pressure from sticky inflation data and a modestly bearish macro backdrop (US‑Dollar strength, higher‑for‑longer rates). If macro risk re‑asserts, the upside could be capped quickly, so a tight stop just below the 20‑day SMA (~$69.50) is prudent.

Actionable take‑away

Given the positive earnings surprise and the technical context, a short‑term long position (or a “buy‑the‑dip” if the price retests $71.00) is warranted for the next 3‑5 trading sessions, targeting $73‑$75. Keep the position size modest and protect with a stop around $69.50 to guard against a broader market pull‑back. If the price fails to hold above $71.00 on the next session, consider exiting and waiting for a clearer directional cue.