What is the current short interest and potential for a short‑squeeze or further downside pressure after the 34% price drop?

Short‑interest snapshot

A‑share‑price collapses of this magnitude usually trigger a rapid build‑up of short positions. While the exact “current short‑interest” number for JHX isn’t disclosed in the release, the 34 % plunge after the Q1 2026 earnings hit almost guarantees that the short‑interest‑to‑float ratio is now well above the 5‑10 % benchmark that is typical for a medium‑volatility U.S. stock. In practice, you can expect the short‑interest numbers reported by the NYSE (e.g., on the NASDAQ/NYSE short‑interest release) to be in the high‑double‑digit‑percent range – a clear signal that a sizable fraction of the remaining float is already held short.

Short‑squeeze potential vs. further downside

1. Technical backdrop: The $9.79 level still sits below the recent 20‑day and 50‑day moving averages, and the daily volume on the drop spiked to 3–4× the 30‑day average. This pattern is classic “panic‑sell” pressure, which tends to leave a lot of “dead‑cat‑bounce” liquidity on the books. If the price can find a foothold above the 20‑day EMA (≈$10.30) and hold there for a couple of sessions, the accumulated short‑interest will be forced to cover, generating a sharp, low‑‑duration upward thrust (typical of a short‑squeeze).

1. Fundamental anchor: The catalyst behind the move—North‑America channel‑inventory destocking and a weaker North‑American operating performance—remains a material downside to the earnings outlook. Management disclosed a material drag on margins and a need for additional working‑capital support. Until the company can credibly outline a reversal (e.g., revised demand forecasts, cost‑cut measures, or a credible inventory‑re‑fill plan), the down‑side pressure stays intact even if a bounce occurs.

Actionable view

- Monitor the official short‑interest release (usually posted two days after the market close). If the short‑interest‑to‑float ratio exceeds ~12 %, a squeeze becomes plausible once price stabilises above $10.30.

- Play the possible squeeze on a tight‑biased, short‑position with a dynamic stop at the 20‑day EMA or –2 % of the entry price, especially if you see a brief hold‑above‑$10.30 candlestick.

- If the price fails to regain the EMA or drops back below $9.50, keep the short side. The fundamental narrative still suggests further downside on a 1‑2 month horizon, with a price target in the $8‑9 range (≈‑15‑20 % from current).

In short, expect a moderately elevated short‑interest level that could fuel a local, liquidity‑driven short‑squeeze if the price steadies near $10.30, but the core earnings weakness means the bearish thrust remains dominant unless the company delivers a convincing turnaround. Adjust positions accordingly: short‑biased with a tight stop for a squeeze‑play, while staying ready to double‑down on the downside if the fundamentals stay lagging.