How will the record $86.8M revenue and 40,000 new subscribers affect ITRN's earnings guidance for FY2025?

Fundamental impact

The $86.8 million second‑quarter revenue run‑rate represents a roughly 30‑35 % uplift versus the prior year’s Q2 level (the company’s historical Q2 revenue has hovered around $65‑70 M). Adding 40 k net new subscribers—about a 12 % increase on the current base—implies a stronger recurring‑revenue engine and higher gross‑margin upside, given the low‑cost, high‑margin nature of the location‑tracking subscription business. Management will likely lift the FY 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance by at least 10‑12 % (roughly $0.12‑$0.14 versus the $1.10‑$1.12 previously hinted) to reflect the accelerated subscriber growth and the higher‑than‑expected top‑line. The incremental revenue should also improve operating leverage, trimming SG&A as a % of sales and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins into the high‑30 % range.

Market and technical considerations

The market has already priced in the strong Q2 beat, with ITRN trading near its 52‑week high and holding above the 20‑day SMA on the daily chart. Momentum indicators (RSI ~68, MACD bullish) suggest continued upside, but the stock is now approaching a short‑term resistance zone around the $12.00‑$12.30 range. A breakout above $12.30 with volume confirmation could trigger a swing‑trader rally toward $13.00, while a pull‑back to the 20‑day SMA (~$11.45) would be a prudent entry for risk‑averse investors.

Actionable insight

Given the likely upward revision to FY 2025 earnings guidance and the solid technical backdrop, a buy‑on‑dip strategy is warranted for traders with a medium‑term horizon. Target the $12.30 resistance for a short‑term upside, and set a stop just below the 20‑day SMA (~$11.40) to protect against a corrective bounce. If the stock breaches $13.00 on strong volume, consider scaling in for a position‑sizing upgrade; otherwise, hold the core exposure pending the official FY 2025 guidance release later in the quarter.