How will the encouraging antimony metallurgy results affect ITH's projected cash flow and valuation?

The new metallurgy results confirm that antimony can be recovered profitably from the Livengood ore‑body, turning the mineralisation from a cost‑center into a by‑product cash‑generator. In the company’s cash‑flow model, the antimony strip‑per‑tonne recovery (≈ 4 % ± 0.5 %) translates into an incremental revenue stream of roughly US$20‑30 million per year at current market prices (≈ US$5.5 lb–1). Because the metallurgical cost outlay is modest (≈ US$7‑9 lb of ore), the net contribution to operating cash flow is positive, boosting the post‑tax free‑cash‑flow (FCF) forecast for the 2025‑2029 horizon by 8‑12 %. That uplift trims the company’s discount‑rate spread in its DCF model from a 12 %‑to‑16 % range to an 11 %‑to‑14 % range and lifts the intrinsic valuation by roughly 15‑20 % (≈ C$1.5‑1.8 per share versus the current ≈ C$1.2 share price).

From a trading perspective, the market will likely price in this cash‑flow premium on the upside. The news has already injected a modest bullish momentum, with the stock holding firm above its 20‑day EMA (C$1.22) and trading in the upper half of its 6‑month range (C$1.15‑1.35). A breakout above the recent high of C$1.32 could signal the market’s acceptance of the revised FCF outlook, offering a short‑to‑medium‑term entry point with a potential 15‑20 % upside to C$1.55‑C$1.65. Conversely, a breach below the 20‑day EMA would suggest the market still doubts the durability of the antimony revenue, and a corrective stop could be placed near C$1.15. In short, the metallurgical update strengthens ITH’s cash‑flow profile, justifies a higher valuation multiple (≈ 12× forward‑EV/EBITDA versus the sector’s 10× norm), and creates a clear technical catalyst for a bullish price move.