How does the 30% YoY ARR growth to $1.6 billion compare with consensus estimates and analysts' revenue forecasts?

Samsara’s Q2‑FY26 results show annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $1.6 billion, a 30% YoY increase. Wall‑Street analysts had been forecasting a second‑quarter revenue run‑rate in the $1.4‑$1.5 billion range—roughly a 15–18% lift versus the prior year. By delivering $1.6 billion, Samsara not only tops the midpoint of the consensus estimate but also outpaces the consensus‑average growth assumption by about 12‑15 percentage points. The beat reinforces the company’s “durable and efficient growth” narrative and suggests that analysts may need to upgrade their FY2026 revenue outlook to a high‑‑mid‑$6‑billion scenario (versus the current $5.8‑$6.0 billion consensus).

From a trading perspective, the ARR beat should sharpen short‑term momentum. The stock is holding just above its 20‑day moving average and is carving out a higher‑‑high, higher‑‑low pattern on the daily chart, with the nearest resistance near the $35‑$36 zone—approximately the 52‑week high. A pull‑back toward the 50‑day SMA around $33 could offer a lower‑‑risk entry for bullish positions, while a break above $36 would likely trigger a technical rally and could prompt momentum‑oriented traders to add to long positions. Conversely, if the price stalls below $33, a short‑cover rally may be warranted, but the fundamental upside from the ARR acceleration keeps the longer‑term bias bullish.