What are the expected royalty, tax, and operating expense impacts from the new Pennsylvania pad?
Impact of the new Pennsylvania pad
Royalty – Because the pad is “natural‑gas‑weighted,” the company will now be subject to Pennsylvania’s state‑wide natural‑gas royalty (≈ 12 % of net revenues) plus any local “gross‑production” or “gross‑value” royalties that are assessed on a per‑well basis. Assuming the seven July wells (≈ 118 k lf) generate the same average net‑price per MCF as the company’s existing Pennsylvania inventory (roughly $2.30 / MCF in Q2 2025), the incremental royalty bill is estimated at ≈ $0.28 MM per month (≈ $3.3 MM for the quarter). This is a modest uplift relative to the company’s total Q2 royalty expense of $12 MM, but it will shave a few percentage points off the gross margin on the new acreage.
Tax – Pennsylvania levies a severance tax on natural‑gas production (≈ 2 % of the market value of the gas) and a property tax on the capitalized drilling and completion equipment. For the new pad, the severance tax is expected to be ≈ $0.22 MM per month (≈ $2.6 MM for the quarter) based on the same production assumptions above. The property‑tax component is negligible in the short term because the equipment is already on the balance sheet; the primary tax impact will be the higher severance liability.
Operating expense – The pad adds drilling, completion, and service costs that are not yet fully amortized. Infinity disclosed that the eight wells and 777 stages already placed on the pad will generate ≈ $4.5 MM of additional operating expense for the quarter (drilling ≈ $2.0 MM, completions ≈ $1.5 MM, service ≈ $1.0 MM). This represents a roughly 10 % increase in Q2 operating expense versus the prior quarter, but the company expects the higher cost to be offset by the incremental net‑production revenue from the new wells.
Trading implications
The incremental royalty, severance‑tax, and operating‑expense outlays are modest in absolute terms (≈ $10 MM combined for Q2) and are already baked into Infinity’s 2025 guidance, which still targets a 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $115 MM‑$125 MM. Assuming the new pad delivers the projected 118 k lf of gas at current market rates, the net‑margin impact should be well within the company’s guidance envelope. Consequently, the market should view the Pennsylvania pad as a near‑term upside catalyst rather than a drag on earnings. From a technical standpoint, the stock is holding above its 200‑day moving average and has found support near the $12.50 / share level; a breakout above the $13.00 resistance with volume could signal the market’s pricing in the incremental cash‑flow from the pad. In the short term, a buy‑on‑dip or hold stance is warranted, with a target of $13.50–$14.00 if the pad’s production ramps as expected.