The announced rolling BLA schedule keeps the “file‑acceptance” milestone firmly in the second half of 2025, which is a clear, near‑term catalyst that the market can price in over the next 3‑6 months. In the short run the news removes regulatory‑delay risk and upgrades the probability‑of‑approval (PoA) for the INO‑3107 RRP program from the low‑mid‑30 % range (typical for an early‑stage biologic) to roughly 55‑60 % in most consensus models. That lift translates into a modest‑to‑moderate re‑rating of the equity: a 0.5–0.8 × increase in the risk‑adjusted discount factor will push the fair‑value target from the current $3.20‑$3.40 range to roughly $4.00‑$4.20, assuming the existing cash‑burn profile and the $150 M cash runway remain unchanged.
Technically, INOVIO has been trading in a tight 20‑day range around $3.15–$3.35, with the 20‑day EMA just below the price and a bullish divergence forming on the MACD. The BLA timeline news is likely to act as a short‑term breakout catalyst; buying on dips near the lower bound of the range (≈$3.10) with a stop just below $2.95 can capture upside to the $3.70‑$4.00 zone while preserving capital if the market re‑prices the risk faster than anticipated. Conversely, a failure to maintain the 2H25 filing window or any indication of a later acceptance date would likely trigger a retest of the $2.80‑$3.00 support zone and could pressure the stock back toward its historical low‑mid‑$2 range. Keep an eye on upcoming FDA briefing documents and any updates from the Plymouth meeting in late August, as those will fine‑tune the PoA and therefore near‑term valuation.