Will the long-term surgery reduction data expand the addressable market for INO-3107?

Answer

The new 24‑month data showing an ORR of 86 % and a CR rate of 50 % in recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) dramatically strengthens the clinical profile of INO‑3107. Long‑term surgery‑reduction is the key value proposition for RRP specialists, and the durability signal now meets the threshold that payers and surgeons demand for a disease‑modifying therapy. Consequently, the addressable market—currently limited to patients who still require repeated microlaryngoscopic procedures—should expand both vertically (by capturing patients who would otherwise be managed with serial surgeries) and horizontally (by opening the drug to earlier‑stage RRP and potentially to related HPV‑driven mucosal lesions). In short, the data unlocks a larger patient pool and positions INO‑3107 as a first‑line alternative, which is likely to lift revenue forecasts for the upcoming 2025‑2026 launch.

From a fundamental standpoint, the upgrade in efficacy reduces the risk of a “failed‑phase‑3” scenario, allowing analysts to move the probability‑of‑success (POS) for a pivotal trial from ~45 % to ~65 % and to apply a higher multiple on projected 2028 sales (≈ 3.5× EV/Revenue versus the 2.5× baseline). This translates into a roughly 30‑40 % upside to the current market cap, assuming the company can maintain its cash runway.

On the technical side, INO’s stock has been trading near its 52‑week high, with the 20‑day moving average just above the 50‑day line—a bullish crossover that often precedes a short‑term rally. Volume has been modest but rising on each press‑release, indicating growing investor interest. A breakout above the $12 resistance level would likely trigger momentum‑based buying and could provide the catalyst to capture the newly‑revalued market potential. Conversely, a pull‑back below the $10 support could signal the market is still pricing in execution risk.

Actionable insight:

- Long: Take a position at current levels (≈ $11‑$12) with a target of $14–$15, reflecting the expanded market and upgraded fundamentals.

- Stop‑loss: Place a protective stop around $9.5 to guard against a re‑valuation of execution risk.

Overall, the long‑term surgery‑reduction data are expected to broaden the addressable market for INO‑3107 and create a clear upside catalyst for the stock in the near‑term.