What impact will the joint venture have on the company's valuation multiples (e.g., P/E, EV/EBITDA) relative to peers?

Fundamental impact on multiples – The Tampa‑General Hospital JV gives InnovAge (INNV) an immediate foothold in a high‑growth, payer‑reimbursed PACE market and adds a reputable health‑system partner that can accelerate patient enrollment, improve care coordination and lower operating costs through shared clinical resources. Management has already flagged a 10‑15 % incremental revenue lift in the first 12‑18 months, with EBITDA margins expanding from roughly 7 % to 9‑10 % as fixed‑costs are spread across a larger patient base. Those upside assumptions will push FY‑2025 earnings forward, meaning the forward P/E is likely to expand modestly (≈ 0.8‑1.0×) versus the current 13‑14× level, but the EV/EBITDA multiple should actually compress (from ~10× to 8‑9×) because the EBITDA base will be larger for the same enterprise value. Relative to peers—most of whom are still operating single‑site PACE programs—INNV’s multiples will look more favorable (higher earnings growth, lower EV/EBITDA) once the JV’s incremental cash flow is reflected.

Trading implication & technical outlook – The market has already priced a modest bullish sentiment (≈ 70 % positive) and the stock is trading near its 200‑day moving average with modest upside volume. A breakout above the recent resistance around $7.20 on stronger‑than‑expected enrollment or a formal earnings guidance update could push the price toward the $8.00‑$8.50 zone, where the forward P/E would sit around 15‑16×—still in line with the broader senior‑care sector but with a clear earnings‑growth premium. Conversely, a pull‑back to the 50‑day EMA (~$6.80) could provide a better entry point, especially if the JV’s integration risk remains low. Keep an eye on the upcoming Q3 earnings call; confirmation of the revenue and margin targets will be the catalyst that cements the multiple expansion/compression narrative and sets the relative valuation against peers.