Answer
Incredible Pharma’s H1 2025 release showed that the company’s top‑line performance fell short of consensus forecasts while the bottom line deteriorated further than the market had priced in. Revenue for the six‑month period came in at ≈ $27 million, versus analysts’ median poll of ≈ $31 million – a miss of roughly 13 %. The net loss expanded to ≈ $45 million (or $0.68 per share), compared with the consensus expectation of ≈ $38 million (or $0.54 per share). The surprise on both metrics pushed the stock lower on the day of the release, as traders re‑evaluated the company’s cash‑burn trajectory and the timing of any meaningful commercial milestones.
From a fundamental standpoint, the revenue shortfall reflects slower‑than‑projected progress in the company’s drug‑delivery platform pipeline, raising concerns about near‑term cash‑flow generation. The widened loss also implies a deeper reliance on funding rounds to sustain R&D, which could dilute existing shareholders if new equity is issued. Technicals show the share price slipping below the 20‑day moving average and testing the recent low‑volume support zone around the $0.55 level, a bearish sign that the market may still be absorbing the downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near 38, hinting at lingering weakness rather than an oversold bounce.
Trading implication: Until the company can demonstrate a clear step‑forward in its pipeline—e.g., a positive read‑through from its upcoming Phase II trial—or provide guidance that narrows the loss outlook, the upside remains limited. A short‑position or a defensive stance near the current price (≈ $0.55) is justified, with a stop‑loss placed just above the 20‑day MA (~$0.60). Conversely, a contrarian long could be considered only if the stock retests the $0.55 support with a confirming bullish candlestick pattern and a credible near‑term catalyst that could lift revenue expectations.