What is the expected timeline and cost for the combination trial, and how might it impact cash flow?
Timeline & Cost
Indaptus Therapeutics disclosed that the new combination‑therapy trial will run for approximately 12‑18 months and is budgeted at $30 million–$40 million (including site‑setup, patient enrolment and interim data‑readout expenses). The company is financing the study primarily from its existing cash balance, which it has bolstered with a recent equity raise and a $15 million credit facility.
Cash‑flow impact
The $30‑$40 million outlay will translate into a significant cash‑burn acceleration over the next two quarters, pulling the cash‑conversion cycle down from the current ~10‑month runway to roughly 7‑8 months if operating expenses stay flat. However, the balance‑sheet strengthening—i.e., the added liquidity from the equity issuance and the credit line—provides a buffer that should keep the company solvent through the trial’s first year, limiting the risk of a near‑term liquidity squeeze.
Trading implications
* Short‑term: Expect modest downside pressure as the market prices in the near‑term cash‑outflow. The stock is currently testing the $0.85‑$0.90 support zone on the daily chart; a break below $0.85 could open a 1‑2 % correction.
* Mid‑term: If the trial meets its primary endpoint milestones (e.g., 12‑month interim data) and the company continues to manage cash efficiently, the upside potential re‑emerges. A bounce back to the $1.00‑$1.10 resistance level would signal that the market is discounting the cash‑burn risk and is rewarding the clinical upside.
Actionable view:
- Hold if you are already long and comfortable with the cash‑burn narrative; the balance‑sheet cushion reduces the likelihood of a liquidity‑driven sell‑off.
- Consider a small defensive stop just below $0.85 to protect against a sharper than expected cash‑flow strain.
- Watch for the 12‑month interim data release (mid‑2026). Positive read‑outs could trigger a breakout above $1.00, presenting a buying opportunity.