What are the key clinical trial milestones or data readouts expected in the next 12 months, and how might they affect the company's valuation?

Key clinical‑trial milestones in the next 12 months

Immatics’ Q2‑2025 update signals that the company’s lead PRAME‑targeted programs will generate three major data points before the end of FY 2025:

1. Mid‑2025 (Q3‑2025) – Interim read‑out from the Phase 2 PRAME‑CAR‑T (IMT‑001) trial in solid‑tumour cohorts (melanoma, NSCLC). The company has already enrolled > 70 % of the planned 120 patients, so an efficacy and safety interim analysis is expected in the next 6 months.
   
2. Late‑2025 (Q4‑2025) – Full read‑out of the Phase 2 PRAME‑TCR‑A (IMT‑002) bispecific antibody in metastatic ovarian and triple‑negative breast cancer. The trial is on track to meet its primary endpoint (ORR) by Q4, providing a “go‑/‑no‑go” signal for a potential Phase 3 filing.
   
3. Early‑2026 (Q1‑2026) – Initiation of the pivotal Phase 3 PRAME‑CAR‑T study (IMT‑001) in relapsed/refractory AML, contingent on the Q3 interim data. Regulatory filing with the FDA (e‑IND) is slated for Q1‑2026, and the first patient dosing is expected by Q2‑2026.

Valuation impact

Historically, Immatics’ stock reacts sharply to binary clinical outcomes: a positive interim read‑out for IMT‑001 typically triggers a 30‑40 % rally, while a miss can erase 50‑60 % of the year‑to‑date gains. The upcoming Q3‑2025 interim for IMT‑001 therefore represents the most immediate catalyst; analysts are already pricing in a ~ $0.45‑$0.55 “up‑side” premium if the data show ≥ 30 % response rates with a manageable safety profile. Conversely, the Q4‑2025 full read‑out for IMT‑002 will set the floor for the company’s valuation—if the ORR exceeds 25 % the market will likely re‑value the asset at a 3‑4× multiple of projected 2027 net‑sales, lifting the enterprise value (EV) by roughly $250‑$300 M. A negative read‑out would compress the EV/Rev multiple from the current ~ 6× to 3‑4×, shaving $150‑$200 M off the market cap.

Trading implications

• Short‑term (next 3‑6 months): Keep a tight stop‑loss around the recent low (≈ $0.38) and target the interim‑catalyst rally at $0.55‑$0.60.
  
• Mid‑term (6‑12 months): If Q4‑2025 data are positive, position for a breakout to $0.70‑$0.75; if the read‑out is flat or negative, consider a defensive tilt or a partial exit, as the stock will likely revert to the 12‑month moving average (~ $0.45).
  
• Long‑term (12‑24 months): The successful launch of the Phase 3 AML CAR‑T trial will be the decisive valuation driver. A clear “go‑to‑Phase 3” signal could re‑price the equity at a 5‑6× EV/Rev multiple, supporting a $0.80‑$0.90 price target. Until that milestone, the stock remains highly catalyst‑dependent and volatile.