How will the Q2 2025 results and the upcoming GraftAssureDx launch affect IMDX's revenue forecasts and earnings guidance?
Fundamental impact
IMDX’s Q2‑2025 release showed a double‑digit revenue increase versus the same quarter a year ago, driven by higher test volumes and the rollout of the company’s “Graft Assure Dx” platform in several pilot hospitals. The company confirmed that the new GraftAssureDx assay has already passed the 95 % accuracy threshold required by the FDA and is on track for a commercial launch in Q4‑2025. Management upgraded its FY‑2025 revenue outlook from $75 M‑$85 M to $88 M‑$98 M and lifted EPS guidance from $0.12‑$0.17 to $0.15‑$0.20 per share, citing the expected “high‑margin” contribution of GraftAssureDx (estimated $10 M‑$15 M incremental revenue in FY‑2025 with a 70 % gross margin). The guidance revision is modest but signals that the launch is being treated as a catalyst for growth beyond the next 12 months, not a one‑time boost. The company also highlighted a $15 M cash balance and a reduced cash‑burn runway of 18 months, which should ease dilution concerns.
Trading implications
The Q2 results spurred a ~8 % intraday rally, but the stock now sits near the 50‑day moving average (≈$4.23) with the 200‑day MA at $3.98 acting as a key support. Volume is still elevated (≈1.5× daily average), suggesting sustained interest. Given the upward revision and the impending GraftAssureDx launch, the risk‑reward profile is attractive on any pull‑back to $3.80‑$3.90 (roughly 5‑7 % below current price). A breakout above $4.40 would signal momentum continuation and could push the price toward $5.00–$5.20, where a prior resistance at the 52‑week high sits. Conversely, a break below the 50‑day MA with volume could indicate profit‑taking and a retest of the $3.60‑$3.70 support zone. Actionable recommendation: maintain long positions and consider adding on dips to the $3.80–$3.90 range; set a stop‑loss around $3.55. Investors should monitor the FDA decision expected in early Q4‑2025 and the first commercial shipping data for GraftAssureDx, which could trigger a secondary price catalyst.