How does the 12.4% revenue growth compare to analyst expectations and consensus estimates for Q3 2025?
Answer
The press release you quoted tells us that i3 Verticals (Nasdaq: IIIV) posted $51.9 million in revenue from continuing operations for Q3 2025, which represents a 12.4 % increase versus the same quarter a year earlier.
However, the release does not include any information about what Wall‑Street analysts were expecting for Q3 2025—there is no mention of consensus‑estimate figures, analyst‑forecast ranges, or any “beat/miss” language that is often added when a company’s results are compared to the market’s expectations.
Because of that, we cannot give a precise, data‑driven comparison between the 12.4 % actual growth and the analyst consensus estimates for the quarter. Below is a structured explanation of what we can and cannot determine from the information you provided, together with some practical steps you can take to obtain the missing analyst‑expectation data.
1. What the news tells us
| Metric | Value (Q3 2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue from continuing operations (Q3) | $51.9 million | +12.4 % vs. Q3 2024 |
| Revenue from continuing operations (9‑month total) | $158 million | (No YoY % disclosed) |
The 12.4 % growth is a company‑specific performance figure. It shows that the business is expanding its top line at a double‑digit rate year‑over‑year.
2. What we do not know from the release
| Missing piece | Why it matters for a “compare to expectations” answer |
|---|---|
| Consensus‑estimate for Q3 2025 revenue (e.g., $48 M, $50 M, $53 M) | Without a forecast number, we cannot say whether the 12.4 % increase is above, in line with, or below analyst expectations. |
| Analyst “beat/miss” language (e.g., “beat consensus estimates”) | The press release would normally highlight a beat if the actuals exceeded the consensus; its absence does not prove a miss, but it leaves the comparison ambiguous. |
| Historical analyst expectations (e.g., prior quarters) | Knowing whether analysts have been consistently conservative or aggressive would help gauge the significance of a 12.4 % rise. |
3. How to gauge the significance of a 12.4 % increase in practice
Even though we lack the exact consensus estimate, we can still discuss the qualitative implications of a 12.4 % YoY revenue rise for a company in the “Earnings” category:
| Consideration | Typical market interpretation |
|---|---|
| Double‑digit growth (≥10 %) | Generally viewed positively, especially for a small‑cap, high‑growth firm like i3 Verticals. It suggests the company is successfully executing its growth strategy. |
| Magnitude vs. prior guidance | If the company had previously guided “mid‑single‑digit” growth, a 12.4 % rise would be a material upside. Conversely, if guidance was “high‑double‑digit,” the result might be seen as in line. |
| Sector context | In the broader telecom‑infrastructure / data‑center services space, a 12 % YoY increase is above the industry average (which historically hovers around 5‑8 % for mature players). This could lead analysts to raise earnings‑per‑share (EPS) forecasts and upgrade the stock. |
| Profitability linkage | If the revenue boost translates into higher gross margins (e.g., due to scale efficiencies), analysts may view the result as more than just top‑line growth, potentially prompting a re-rating of the stock. |
4. How to obtain the missing analyst‑expectation data
To answer the question with concrete numbers, you would need to locate the consensus revenue estimate for Q3 2025 that analysts had published before the earnings release. Here are the most common sources:
| Source | How to access |
|---|---|
| FactSet – “Consensus Estimates” module | Requires a FactSet subscription; you can pull the Q3 2025 revenue consensus for IIIV. |
| Bloomberg Terminal – “EST” function | Type EST <GO> and search for “i3 Verticals” → view the consensus estimate for the quarter. |
| Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters) Workspace – “Company Estimates” | Use the “Estimates” view for IIIV to see the median analyst forecast. |
| Yahoo! Finance / MarketWatch – “Analysis” tab | Some free sites publish the “Average Analyst Estimate” for revenue, though coverage for small‑cap stocks can be spotty. |
| S&P Capital IQ – “Estimates” section | If you have a Capital IQ account, you can retrieve the consensus forecast. |
| SEC filings – “Management Discussion & Analysis” (MD&A) in the 10‑Q | Companies sometimes disclose the prior‑quarter guidance they gave analysts; you can compare the actual to that guidance. |
Once you have the consensus figure (e.g., $48 M), you can compute the % beat:
[
\text{% Beat} = \frac{\text{Actual} - \text{Consensus}}{\text{Consensus}} \times 100\%
]
If the consensus were $48 M, the calculation would be:
[
\frac{51.9 - 48}{48} \times 100\% \approx 8.1\%
]
That would mean i3 Verticals beat analyst expectations by roughly 8 % for Q3 2025.
5. Sample “what‑if” illustration (purely illustrative)
| Hypothetical consensus estimate | Actual revenue | % Beat (or Miss) |
|---|---|---|
| $48 M | $51.9 M | +8.1 % (beat) |
| $52 M | $51.9 M | ‑0.2 % (miss) |
| $50 M | $51.9 M | +3.8 % (beat) |
Note: The numbers above are *examples only** and do not reflect real analyst data. They are provided to show how you would calculate the comparison once the consensus estimate is known.*
6. Bottom‑line take‑away
- From the press release alone: i3 Verticals posted a 12.4 % YoY revenue increase in Q3 2025.
- Without analyst consensus data: We cannot definitively state whether this growth exceeded, met, or fell short of Wall‑Street expectations.
- To answer the question precisely: Retrieve the Q3 2025 consensus revenue estimate from a financial data provider (FactSet, Bloomberg, Refinitiv, etc.) and compute the percentage difference between the actual ($51.9 M) and the consensus.
- Qualitative context: A 12.4 % rise is generally strong for a small‑cap growth company and, if it outperforms consensus, would likely lead analysts to raise forecasts and potentially upgrade the stock. If it merely matches consensus, the result would be viewed as in line with expectations.
Action steps you can take right now
- Log into your data‑provider platform (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet).
- Search for “IIIV” (i3 Verticals) and locate the “Consensus Estimates” for the Q3 2025 revenue.
- Record the median estimate (or the range of estimates).
- Calculate the % beat using the formula above.
- Interpret the result:
- Positive % beat → analysts likely view the quarter as a beat, which can boost the stock and prompt upward revisions.
- Negative or near‑zero % beat → the result is in line or a miss, which may keep the stock stable or lead to downward pressure.
- Positive % beat → analysts likely view the quarter as a beat, which can boost the stock and prompt upward revisions.
If you need help interpreting the numbers once you have them, feel free to share the consensus figure and I can walk you through the exact comparison.