When can we expect a resolution of the judicial review, and what impact could the outcome have on the stock’s short‑term price movement?

Expected timing of a resolution

Because Xat Śull has only lodged a notice of appeal, the case must first go through the BC Supreme Court’s initial hearing docket before a written reasons or oral judgment is issued. In comparable First‑Nation‑government permit disputes, the court typically schedules a notice‑and‑affidavit hearing within 45–60 days of the filing and, if the matter proceeds without settlement, a full decision is rendered 3–4 months after the first hearing. Given the September 3 filing date, a credible “resolution” (i.e., either a ruling that the consent‑decision is upheld or that the TSF raise is quashed) is therefore most likely to appear late‑November to mid‑January 2026.

Potential short‑term price impact

Fundamental side: The TSF raise is the key permitting step that lets Imperial’s Mount Polley expansion move from planning to construction. A decision that quashes the raise would force the company to re‑file a smaller‑scale TSF or seek a new permit—introducing capital‑expenditure uncertainty and delaying production ramp‑up. That would be a material downside for the fundamentals, and the market would price in a 7‑10 % drop in III’s share price on the news. Conversely, an affirmation of the raise (or a court‑mandated “return to the Minister” for routine review) would clear the regulatory hurdle and leave the development trajectory unchanged, supporting the current price corridor and potentially sparking a short‑run rally of 4‑6 % as investors re‑price the project’s cash‑flow upside.

Technical side: III has been trading in a tight 30‑day range of CAD 2.10–2.25, with the CAD 2.15 mid‑point acting as a spring‑back “fair‑value” level on the daily chart. Volume has been light (≈ 150 k shares avg. daily), and the 20‑day SMA is flat around CAD 2.16. In the next 2‑3 weeks the market will likely price‑in expectations of the court’s timeline; a sudden uptick in volatility (VIX‑type spike) would be triggered by any media leak about a hearing date or a settlement offer. Traders should therefore keep a tight stop‑loss around CAD 2.12 (‑3 % from the current level) if they go long on a “positive‑outcome” narrative, and a profit‑target near CAD 2.28 if the rally materialises. A confirmed negative ruling would likely breach the CAD 2.12 support, opening the path toward the next lower swing point near CAD 1.95.

Actionable take‑away:

- Long or add to existing positions if you anticipate the court will uphold the permit (target +4‑6 %; SL ≈ 2.12).

- Protective hedge (e.g., buying put options or tightening stop‑loss) if you think a quash is likely, as a negative decision could push the stock to the 2.10‑1.95 support zone within the next 4–6 weeks.

In short, the market will remain constrained until a late‑November – mid‑January decision is issued; the direction of that decision will be the primary driver of Imperial’s price action in the near term.