What are the expectations for political ad revenue in the upcoming quarters and FY2025?

Expectation for Political‑Ad Revenue

iHeartMedia’s Q2 2025 press release shows total revenue of $934 million, a modest 0.5 % increase versus Q2 2024. The “excluding Q2 political revenue” figure rises 1.5 %, which tells us that the political‑advertising segment actually subtracted roughly 1 % from the headline growth. In other words, political ad spend is either flat or modestly declining in the current cycle.

Given the broader macro‑environment—elevated election‑cycle activity in the U.S. but a relatively soft political‑advertising market in 2024‑25—the consensus among analysts is that political‑ad revenue will remain roughly level‑to‑slightly down‑trended for the rest of 2025. iHeart’s management has not flagged any new political‑advertising contracts, and the “excluding political” growth rate (≈1.5 % QoQ) is expected to be the primary driver of quarterly top‑line growth moving forward. Consequently, we can anticipate political‑ad revenue to contribute a neutral‑to‑slightly negative impact on total revenue in each of the next two quarters and for FY 2025.

Trading Implications

• Short‑term: The modest drag from political ads means the stock is likely to trade on the back of operating‑income recovery (GAAP $35 M vs. a $910 M loss a year ago) rather than on any upside from political spend. Expect the price to stay in a tight range until the Q3 2025 earnings call clarifies whether political ad pipelines have improved.
• Medium‑term: If political‑ad revenue stays flat or modestly down, the upside to the share price will have to come from continued margin expansion and higher‑margin non‑political advertising (e.g., digital and branded content). A buy‑on‑dip at current levels could be justified if the market over‑penalizes the 0.5 % total‑revenue growth, provided the broader revenue trajectory holds at ~1.5 % QoQ without political drag.
• Risk: Any unexpected surge (or further decline) in political‑ad spend—driven by a late‑year election cycle or policy‑driven ad surges—could swing quarterly results enough to trigger volatility. Keep a stop‑loss near the recent low to protect against a sudden negative political‑ad shock.