What potential market share could TRYVIO™ capture from existing hypertension therapies and competitors?

Potential market share:

The inclusion of TRYVIO™ (aprocitentan) in the ACC/AHA hypertension guideline instantly positions it as a “first‑in‑class” therapy targeting the endothelin pathway—a mechanism untouched for more than three decades. In the U.S., the antihypertensive market is valued at roughly $15‑$20 bn and is fragmented across ACE‑inhibitors, ARBs, calcium‑channel blockers, diuretics and newer fixed‑dose combos. Historically, a guideline‑endorsed novel agent can capture 4‑6 % of the total market within 12‑18 months, expanding to 10‑12 % as physicians adopt it for resistant hypertension (≈10‑15 % of the hypertensive population). Given that TRYVIO is the only new drug in the latest guideline and is specifically recommended for “difficult‑to‑control” cases, a realistic near‑term addressable slice is ≈1‑1.5 bn USD (≈5‑8 % of U.S. sales), with a longer‑run upside to ≈2‑3 bn USD if payer reimbursement and real‑world efficacy data remain favorable.

Trading implications:

Idorsia’s (IDIA) stock should already be priced for a modest “guideline‑driven” catalyst, but the news leaves a 10‑15 % upside potential if execution milestones (launch, formulary acceptance, and early sales) meet the above market‑share assumptions. Investors should watch the upcoming Q3 earnings for launch‑readiness metrics (manufacturing ramp‑up, distribution contracts, and initial prescription volumes). A bullish entry could be placed on a breakout above the recent $12‑$13 resistance zone with a stop just below the 50‑day moving average (~$10.5). Conversely, any delay in payer coverage decisions or safety signals could cap upside and trigger a re‑evaluation of the upside target. In short, the guideline inclusion creates a clear catalyst; the key risk/reward balance hinges on how quickly TRYVIO converts guideline endorsement into real‑world prescriptions and payer formulary status.