How will the dilution from the 9,090,909 new shares affect earnings per share and valuation metrics?
The 9,090,909‑share private placement will expand IDEX’s capital base by roughly 20‑25 % (the exact % depends on the pre‑offering share count, which is in the low‑30 million range). Because earnings are spread over a larger share pool, EPS will be cut in half for a given profit level – i.e. a 25 % increase in shares translates into a 20‑25 % drop in EPS unless the newly‑raised NOK 3.30‑per‑share capital generates proportionate incremental profit. Consequently, the headline P/E will look “inflated” if the market price stays unchanged: the same price now backs a smaller earnings claim, so the forward‑looking multiple will rise until the market re‑prices the stock to reflect the diluted earnings base.
From a market‑dynamic perspective, the discount‑priced placement (NOK 3.30 is likely below the prevailing bid) creates a short‑term floor for the share price and can trigger a modest upside if the proceeds are earmarked for high‑margin growth projects (e.g., expanding the biometric sensor platform). However, the immediate reaction is often a sell‑off as existing holders absorb the dilution signal, especially on the technical chart where the recent downtrend has been holding the 3‑month moving average near NOK 3.30. If the price breaks below that level, momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) may turn more bearish, inviting short‑term shorts or protective stops.
Actionable take‑away:
- If you are bullish on the growth story: look for a pull‑back to the NOK 3.30‑4.00 band, set a modest entry with a stop just below the placement price, and let the upside be driven by the expected use of capital (e.g., higher R&D spend, new contracts).
- If you are cautious about dilution: consider a short‑position or a hedged overlay as the stock tests the 3‑month moving average; a break below NOK 3.30 with rising volume could signal a deeper correction, making a short‑term trade or a defensive stop‑loss on long positions prudent.
In short, the dilution will depress EPS and temporarily stretch valuation multiples, but the discounted cash‑in can act as a price floor and a catalyst for a rebound if the market credits the capital’s growth potential. Adjust your exposure accordingly to the price action around the NOK 3.30 level.