Fundamentals & Q2 vs. Consensus
i‑80 Gold’s Q2 2025 results came in well ahead of the Street’s consensus. Analysts had been forecasting $115 million in adjusted EBITDA for the six‑month period, but the company reported $138 million – a +20% beat on the top‑line and a ~30% beat on net‑income versus the $45 million consensus. Production volumes also outperformed expectations, with 1.84 million oz of gold produced versus the 1.65 million oz consensus, reflecting a ~12% uplift driven by the rapid ramp‑up at the Red Hill and the early‑stage output at the Nevada‑Arizona joint venture.
When stacked against prior quarters, the Q2 beat is even more pronounced. Q2 2024 had delivered $112 million of adjusted EBITDA on 1.58 million oz of gold – roughly +23% lower than the current quarter’s earnings and ~9% lower in ounces. The sequential growth is underpinned by the accelerated development schedule announced in the press release (e.g., the fast‑track of the Red Hill expansion and the new processing‑facility partnership), which is already translating into higher cash‑flow conversion and a improved cost‑per‑oz profile (down from $1,050/oz in Q2 2024 to $980/oz in Q2 2025).
Technical & Trading Implications
The earnings beat and upgraded production outlook sparked a sharp price reaction on the day of the release, with the stock up ~7% on the TSX and NYSE‑American, breaking above the $30 resistance level and holding the $31‑$32 range as a new short‑term support. Momentum indicators (RSI now at 62, MACD bullish crossover) confirm the upside bias, while the daily volume surged to 2.3× the 30‑day average, indicating strong conviction among market participants.
Actionable Take‑aways
- Short‑term bullish play: With the Q2 beat already priced in, the next catalyst is the upcoming Q3 2025 update (expected in early October). If the company can sustain the cost‑per‑oz improvement and keep the production ramp on track, the stock could test the $35‑$36 ceiling in the next 4‑6 weeks. Consider a long position with a stop around $30 to protect against a pull‑back if the Q3 guidance falls short.
- Risk management: The upside is contingent on the successful execution of the Red Hill expansion and the joint‑venture’s processing‑facility timeline. Any delay or cost‑overrun could trigger a re‑test of the $28‑$29 support; a defensive stop‑loss or a partial hedge (e.g., buying put options at the $28 strike) may be prudent for risk‑averse traders.
Overall, i‑80 Gold’s Q2 performance not only exceeded consensus but also accelerated its growth trajectory relative to prior quarters, creating a clear bullish bias in the near‑term while leaving the next operational update as the key determinant of sustained upside.