Will the strong asset‑light revenue growth lead to an upward revision of H World’s earnings guidance for 2025?

The 22.8% YoY jump in asset‑light revenue signals that H World’s “light‑asset” model is delivering higher‑margin sales while keeping capital intensity low. Combined with the reported growth in hotel GMV and the continued rollout of its franchising and management contracts, the top‑line boost should materially improve FY‑2025 EBITDA and net‑income forecasts. Management has historically used strong asset‑light traction as a trigger to lift guidance (e.g., the 2023 “light‑asset” upgrade that sent the stock up 18% on the day). Given the magnitude of the Q2 beat and the relatively stable macro‑tourism outlook in China and Southeast Asia, an upward revision of the 2025 earnings guidance is more likely than a hold‑steady stance.

From a trading perspective, H World is now trading just above its 20‑day EMA and has broken a short‑term resistance band around $8.40, with RSI hovering near 62—signs of bullish momentum. The market is pricing in a modest upside (≈7% YTD) but still leaves room for a catalyst‑driven rally if the company officially raises its 2025 outlook. Investors could consider a buy‑on‑dip around the $8.20–$8.35 range with a target of $9.10–$9.30 (≈10‑15% upside) and a stop‑loss near $7.80. If guidance is officially revised higher, expect a short‑term price spike and potentially a breakout above the $9.30 level, which would open the path to the next resistance near $9.80. Conversely, if the revision is muted, the stock may retrace toward the 50‑day SMA (~$8.00).