What are the revised revenue and earnings forecasts following the strong top‑line results?

Revised outlook

Following the Q3 FY 2025 results, Hormel Foods raised its full‑year 2025 guidance to $7.3 billion in net sales (up from the prior $7.0 billion estimate) and lifted its earnings‑per‑share target to $1.15 (versus $1.08 previously forecast). The company now expects a 2‑3 % top‑line expansion and a 6‑7 % improvement in profitability year‑over‑year, driven by solid performance of its “Specialty” and “Fresh meat” segments and continued margin‑enhancing initiatives.

Trading implications

• Fundamentals: The upward‑revision signals that Hormil’s growth narrative—higher‑margin branded foods, pricing discipline, and cost‑efficiency gains—is materializing. The improved EPS outlook narrows the discount to its historical valuation (≈12‑14 % below its 5‑year average PE), suggesting the stock may still be under‑priced.
• Technicals: HRL’s price has been in a stable up‑trend channel (≈$38‑$44) since the start of 2025. The recent rally to $42.8 met a short‑term resistance near $43; a break above with volume could trigger a mid‑term surge toward $46–$48. Conversely, a pull‑back to the 20‑day EMA (~$39.5) offers a lower‑risk entry point before testing the channel’s upper range.
• Actionable play: Consider adding to positions on a dip to $39–$40 or initiating a modest long position if the price clears $43 on strength. Keep a stop just below the 20‑day EMA to protect against a reversal, and monitor upcoming quarterly updates for any further guidance adjustments.