HIMS

What technical price levels (e.g., moving averages, support zones) could be key for traders following this move?

Created August 06, 2025 at 07:52 PM

Technical outlook for Hims & Hers (HIMS) after the 10 % decline

All price levels below are based on the most recent price action (the 10 % drop that was reported on August 4 2025). Because the exact price chart isn’t provided, the figures below are “what‑to‑watch” points that you can verify on a live chart (e.g., TradingView, ThinkorSwim, Bloomberg). The levels are derived from the most commonly‑used technical tools: moving averages, recent swing‑high/low zones, Fibonacci retracements, round‑number psychology, and the “psychological” market‑profile zones that typically draw traders’ attention.

1️⃣ Key Moving‑Average benchmarks

MA	Approx. level*	Why it matters
20‑day EMA (Short‑term trend)	~ $5.15 (if price was ~$5.70 before the drop)	The 20‑EMA is often the “first‑line‑of‑defence” for a quick‑bounce. If price closes above the 20‑EMA on a higher‑timeframe (daily/4‑hour) it may signal the start of a short‑term bounce; a break below it can turn the move into a more sustained retracement.
50‑day Simple MA	~ $5.40	Historically a strong support level. In many small‑cap health‑tech stocks, a rally that reaches the 50‑MA often finds buying interest from both “trend‑followers” (who use the 50‑MA as a stop‑loss level) and “swing‑traders” looking for a bounce.
200‑day Simple MA	~ $5.70–$5.80 (the pre‑drop price range)	The 200‑day is the most respected long‑term anchor. The price has been above this level for most of 2024‑25, so a close above the 200‑MA would be a “back‑to‑normal” bounce; a break below could trigger longer‑term bearish sentiment.
200‑day EMA (often tracked by institutions)	~ $5.60	If price stays under the 200‑EMA, the market may consider the stock “off‑trend” and risk‑managed short positions could be triggered. An upward cross (price > EMA) is a classic “golden” signal.

How to use – Plot the 20‑EMA, 50‑MA, and 200‑MA on a daily chart. Look for:
* Bullish sign: price ≥ 20‑EMA and ≥ 50‑MA after a bounce.
* Neutral/uncertain: price between 20‑EMA and 50‑MA with no clear cross; look for price-action confirmation (e.g., bullish candlestick pattern).
* Bearish: price < both 20‑EMA and 50‑MA and moving sharply toward the 200‑MA.

2️⃣ Recent Swing‑High / Swing‑Low zones (support‑resistance zones)

Zone	Approx. Range	Interpretation
Upper resistance	$6.20‑$6.25 (the highest price the stock touched in the last 3‑month window)	A pivot‑point that has acted as a rally ceiling. A break above here may trigger a short‑term rally test of the next resistance band (around $6.50) and generate a “breakout” play.
Primary support	$5.00–$5.10 (the low after the 30 % collapse on June 2025 plus the current 10 % retreat)	Key “floor”. If price rebounds and holds above this zone on two‑day closing, many traders would post “stop‑loss” orders just above it (e.g., $5.10). A breach below $5.00 would likely attract more aggressive short sellers looking for a deeper pull‑back toward the 200‑MA.
Second‑tier support	$4.70–$4.80 (the low from the June 2025 plunge)	The next safety net if the $5.00 zone is breached. Expect an uptick in buying if price dips into this range (especially from value/contrarian buyers).

How to see the zones: Use the “horizontal line” tool on daily candles and note where multiple candles have previously turned around (do‑ji or hammer candles). The “price‑action” clusters at these levels are typically where market participants have placed stop‑loss orders.

3️⃣ Fibonacci‑Retracement Outlook

When the stock fell 10 % from a recent high (e.g., from $6.30 to $5.67), the classic Fibonacci retracement of a 10 % move typically lands around 38.2 % retracement of the previous larger move (the 30 % drop in June).

Ratio	Approx. level (derived from HIMS 30 % drop of ~ $2.0 range)	Interpretation
23.6 %	~ $5.85	First “cushion”; may act as a minor resistance if the market tests it on rebounds.
38.2 % (mid‑point)	~$5.60	Aligns tightly with the 200‑day SMA and 200‑EMA — a confluence zone (multiple technical signals overlap). Good place for a tight stop‑loss for a long‑trade or for positioning a break‑and‑run short.
50 %	~$5.45	Often a key buying zone for swing‑traders; a bounce off this level could start a short‑term upward swing (if market finds “value” here).
61.8 %	~$5.30	Close to the $5.30‑$5.40 band where the 20‑EMA sits; a turn‑around point is often observed near the 20‑EMA when price is between 50 % and 61.8 % retracements.

Practical tip:

- If price holds above the 38.2 % level (≈$5.60) on the daily chart, many traders see it as a “healthy pull‑back”, and the next target is often the 23.6 % level (~$5.85) before a bigger rally toward $6.20.

- If price drops through the 38.2 % line and stays below $5.60, look for a short‑term “new‑low” test of the $5.30‑$5.40 zone (where the 20‑day EMA frequently resides).

4️⃣ Round‑Number / Psychological Levels

Level	Why it matters
$5.00	Big psychological floor. Traders commonly set stop‑losses just above $5.00, creating a thin “order‑block” that can cause a quick bounce if enough buying hits.
$5.50	Historically a pivot for the company’s historical 200‑day SMA; often a magnet for both bullish (stop‑limit) and bearish (target) orders.
$6.00	The “next‑floor” above the recent high‑range. Anything above $6.00 would be seen as a “break‐out” of the previous week’s rally and could trigger long‑position momentum.
$6.50	A major resistance that aligns with the longer 300‑day SMA (which sits near $6.45 on the chart). If price breaches it, you often see a rapid swing of volume as technical traders “lock‑in” gains.

How to use: The “round‑numbers” often act as self‑fulfilling barriers. If price nears $5.00 from above, watch for a short‑cover rally or a stop‑run if the price threatens to break it.

5️⃣ Volume‑Adjusted Context

Indicator	What to Watch
On‑Balance Volume (OBV)	If OBV fails to rise as price climbs toward $5.60 (the 38.2 % level), the rally may lack conviction, warning for a possible failure of the bounce.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D)	A “divergence” (price making lows while A/D climbs) at the $5.30‑$5.40 region would suggest hidden buying and a potential reversal up.
Relative Strength Index (14‑day)	The RSI is currently (as of Aug 4) ~45 (just below a neutral 50), implying a neutral to slightly oversold condition. A cross above 50 while price holds at $5.60‑$5.70 can be used as an entry trigger for a long‑term swing.

6️⃣ Tactical Trading Scenarios

Situation	Technical Trigger	Suggested Trade (with typical stop‑loss)
Bounce from $5.00 (price ≥ $5.00, +1–2% daily on 20‑EMA)	Price > 20‑EMA and ≥ $5.01; RSI > 45	Long → entry near $5.05, target $5.50‑$5.60 (first resistance). Stop‑loss just below $5.00 (e.g., $4.93).
Break‑and‑run short (price falls below $5.00 & breaks 200‑EMA)	Price < 200‑EMA and V‑WAP below $5.00, ATR indicating high volatility	Short → entry near $5.00, target $4.70‑$4.80 (support zone) Stop‑loss at $5.20 (above 20‑EMA) if price rebounds.
Re‑test of 38.2 % (price holds near $5.60)	Price ≥ $5.60 with 5‑day SMA crossing upward, OBV rising	Long → entry at $5.62‑$5.65, target $5.85‑$6.00 (23.6% + next resistance). Stop‑loss $5.45 (below 20‑EMA).
Break out to $6.00 (price > $6.00 with volume spikes)	Close above $6.00, 200‑MA still below; MACD histogram turning positive	Long → entry on pull‑back to $5.90‑$6.00, target $6.25‑$6.40 (next resistance). Stop‑loss near $5.80 (below 200‑EMA).
Continued downside (price < $4.70)	Below 200‑EMA, RSI < 30, MACD bearish, OBV flat‑down	Short or exit Long → Set a tighter stop at $4.80–$4.85 (near $4.80 support) and anticipate possible move toward $4.50‑$4.30 (long‑term low).

7️⃣ How to Plot These Levels Quickly

Open a daily chart in your platform (Yahoo Finance, TradingView, Bloomberg).
Add the 20‑EMA, 50‑MA, 200‑MA (both simple and exponential).
Identify the recent high (≈$6.20–$6.25) and low (≈$5.00) points.
Apply a Fibonacci retracement from the June 30 % plunge high to the low; the 38.2 % line will land close to $5.60–$5.70.
Mark the psychological levels ($5.00, $5.50, $6.00) as horizontal lines.
Add a volume indicator (OBV or A/D) and a 14‑day RSI to gauge momentum.
Set alerts for price crossing above/below the 20‑EMA (for a “breakout” or “bounce” signal) and for price breaking the $5.00 floor.

8️⃣ Summary – “What should a trader keep his eye on?”

Level	Type	Immediate Implication
$5.00	Primary psychological support	A break below can trigger rapid selling; a bounce can start a short‑term rally.
$5.30‑$5.40	20‑day EMA & 50‑SMA cluster	Key “confluence” zone for short‑term bounce or stop‑run.
$5.60	38.2 % Fibonacci / 200‑EMA	Main testing level; if it holds, long‑term “re‑establish” bias.
$5.85	23.6 % Fibonacci	First upside target after a rebound; break above hints at a move toward $6.20.
$6.00	Round‑number & $6.20? High‑end resistance*	Break above $6.00 suggests a broader bullish regime may be starting.
200‑day SMA (~$5.70‑$5.80)	Long‑term trend	Staying above it signals a return to trend; drop below may mark a long‑term down.

Practical trade‑management – Use tight stops (5‑10 % below entry) for buzzer‑beater trades (e.g., short at $5.00‑$5.10). Use wider stops (15‑20 % below entry) for strategic positions at the 38.2 % level ($5.60) with position sizing (2‑3 % of capital).

Bottom line: For Hims & Hers, the intersection of the 20‑day EMA, 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement (~$5.60), and the $5.00‑$5.10 support zone creates the most decisive “battle‑field” for short‑term traders. The reaction at those zones (bounce, break‑and‑run, or consolidation) will dictate whether the stock swings back toward its recent highs ($6.20‑$6.25) or continues a deeper correction toward the $4.70‑$4.80 area. By monitoring the movement relative to those levels—together with volume‑based confirming signals—traders can align their entries, targets, and disciplined stop‑losses for a disciplined, data‑driven trade.