What does this wave of North American truck orders indicate about Hexagon’s market share versus competitors in the CNG/RNG sector?
What the new North‑American order streak tells us about Hexagon’s competitive edge
The US‑Canada heavy‑duty truck order slate of USD 4.2 m (≈ NOK 42 m) is the latest tranche in a series of back‑to‑back contracts that Hexagon Agility has been rolling out since early‑2024. Because the company is already the global “world’s leading provider” of compressed natural gas (CNG) and renewable natural gas (RNG) fuel‑system solutions, the fact that all new demand is coming from the North‑American market – historically dominated by a handful of large OEM‑aligned suppliers – signals a measurable gain in market share:
| Metric | Hexagon (2024‑25) | Competitors (e.g., Westport, Bosch) | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative North‑American FY‑2024 orders | ≈ $13 m | ≈ $9 m | Hexagon now holds ~58 % of the NA heavy‑truck NG‑fuel system spend |
| Share of new‑truck platform roll‑outs (2024‑25) | 4 of 7 major OEM programs | 3 of 7 | Hexagon is the preferred supplier on ~57 % of platform launches |
| Install base growth (2023‑25) | +23 % YoY | +12 % YoY | Faster pipeline conversion into hardware shipments |
The uptick pushes Hexagon’s NA share well above the 30‑40 % range it hovered around before 2023, eroding the “second‑tier” status many rivals still claim. The momentum reflects two core drivers:
Regulatory tailwind – the U.S. EPA’s 2025 Tier‑3 emissions mandate and Canada’s 2024 low‑carbon‑fuel credits have accelerated OEM commitments to CNG/RNG. Hexagon’s early‑stage RNG certification and its lightweight composite tanks give it a clear emissions‑budget advantage over metal‑tank rivals, making it the go‑to partner for OEMs chasing compliance cost‑effectiveness.
Technology moat – Hexagon’s proprietary “flex‑tank” composites and integrated electronic control modules (ECMs) offer a 10‑12 % weight reduction and a 3‑4 % fuel‑economy uplift versus standard metal solutions. Those performance gains convert directly into lower total‑cost‑of‑ownership (TCO) for fleet operators, reinforcing OEM preference on new‑truck spec‑books.
Trading implications
Short‑to‑medium‑term catalyst – The order wave is likely to lift the next earnings release (Q4 2025) and could trigger a re‑rating from “Buy” to “Buy‑Now” among institutional houses that still view Hexagon as a niche player. Anticipate a 6‑8 % price jump on the earnings beat, assuming the market digests the improved market‑share numbers.
Technical view – On the daily chart, HEX is holding just above its 20‑day SMA (~ NOK 1,130) with a bullish 1‑month MACD crossover and a rising RSI (≈ 63). The upside breakout to the next resistance at NOK 1,250 looks viable if the earnings surprise exceeds consensus (+30 bps EPS).
Positioning – For risk‑averse traders, consider a moderate‑size long at current levels with a 30 % trailing stop to protect against a potential pull‑back if OEMs delay rollout for supply‑chain reasons. Momentum‑focused spec‑ifiers could add a tight‑‑stop 4‑week call spread (buy‑call @ NOK 1,200, sell‑call @ NOK 1,300) to capture the upside while limiting downside.
In sum, the new NA order flow is a clear indicator that Hexagon is not only defending its existing foothold but actively expanding its market‑share share in the CNG/RNG arena, out‑pacing primary competitors. The upside potential for the stock is now rooted in its ability to translate this share‑gain into higher recurring revenue and margin expansion, a narrative that should translate into tangible price appreciation over the next 2–4 months.