Which commercial projects are driving the reported progress in execution, and what is their expected timeline to revenue?

Commercial projects behind the execution lift

ESS’s Q2‑2025 release points to a “significant progress on both commercial execution” as the primary driver of the recent performance uptick. While the brief does not name individual contracts, the language makes clear that the company is moving forward with a slate of utility‑scale, long‑duration energy‑storage (LDES) projects that have already been secured or are in the final engineering‑design stage. These are the “commercial projects” referenced in the release – essentially the next wave of battery‑plus‑thermal‑storage installations that ESS is rolling out for grid‑balancing, renewable‑firming and peak‑shaving applications.

Revenue timing

Because the projects are already in the execution phase, ESS expects them to start generating billings and revenue in the second half of 2025. The company’s capital‑discipline focus and the July financing of up to $31 million are being used to fund the ramp‑up of these contracts, which should translate into a mid‑2025 to early‑2026 revenue window as the first LDES units are delivered, commissioned and accepted by customers.

Trading implications

• Short‑term upside: The combination of confirmed project pipelines and a clear near‑term revenue horizon should support the stock’s momentum into the next earnings cycle. Momentum‑technical indicators (e.g., a bullish MACD crossover and the price holding above the 20‑day EMA) are already in positive territory, suggesting room for a 2–4 % upside on the next session, especially if the company provides a concrete project update in its upcoming earnings call.
• Risk considerations: The lack of project‑specific disclosure means the market is still pricing in execution risk. Any delay in commissioning or a downgrade in expected storage performance could compress the revenue timeline and pressure the stock. Keep a tight stop just below the recent low (≈ 2–3 % under the current price) to protect against unexpected setbacks.

Actionable take‑away: With the second‑half‑2025 revenue window now in sight and financing already in place, a long‑position with a modest stop loss is justified for traders looking to capture the upside from the execution of ESS’s utility‑scale LDES projects. If the upcoming earnings call confirms the mid‑2025 delivery schedule, consider scaling in; if the timeline is pushed out, tighten the stop or consider a short‑side hedge.