How will the $13 million contract affect Granite's earnings per share and revenue guidance for the upcoming quarters?

Fundamental impact – The ≈ $13 million LCRWS contract will be recorded in Granite’s Q3 capital‑expenditure (CAP) schedule, effectively adding a new revenue stream of roughly $13 million in the quarter in which construction begins (likely Q3‑24). Granite’s FY‑24 revenue run‑rate sits near $200‑210 million, so the contract represents a ~6‑7% boost to quarterly top‑line. Assuming an average operating margin of roughly 12‑14% (typical for Granite’s water‑infrastructure projects) the net contribution would be roughly $1.5‑$1.8 million of operating profit. Spread over the current 12‑month share count (~70 M shares), that translates to an incremental EPS of roughly $0.02‑$0.03 for Q3, with a modest tail‑end effect on Q4 and FY‑24 EPS (≈$0.01‑$0.02). Consequently, management can comfortably lift its revenue guidance for the upcoming quarters by the full $13 million (or by a modestly higher amount once engineering‑service fees are added), and raise EPS guidance by roughly $0.02‑$0.03 per share for Q3 and a smaller incremental amount for the full year.

Market and trading implications – The contract’s high‑confidence, federally‑backed funding lowers execution risk, so the market should view this as a catalyst that narrows the earnings‑gap versus analysts’ consensus. The $13 million addition is modest relative to the full market cap but enough to shift analyst forecasts upward, supporting a buy‑on‑dip or hold stance for GVA with a target price uplift of 2‑4% over the next 4‑8 weeks. Technicals show the stock trading near its 50‑day SMA with bullish momentum; the earnings bump could trigger a breakout above the $27‑$28 range. Traders should monitor the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the incremental margin, and watch for any revisions to CAP‑related spending that could amplify the upside. If the company confirms the full $13 million revenue addition and a modest EPS lift, a short‑term rally is probable. However, any construction delays or cost overruns could temper the upside, so keep a stop‑loss near the recent swing low (~$26.5) to manage risk.