What are the lock‑up provisions for insiders and existing shareholders, and how might they affect the post‑IPO price?
Typical lock‑up structure
For a blank‑check vehicle like GSR IV Acquisition Corp., the underwriting agreement almost always contains a 180‑day “lock‑up” that bars insiders (executive officers, directors, and any sponsor‑related entities) and pre‑IPO shareholders from selling any of their shares or units during that period. The lock‑up may be tiered – for example, sponsors and their affiliates are often prohibited from selling for the full 180 days, while other early investors may be allowed a limited “partial release” after 90 days (e.g., 25 % of their holdings). In practice, the prospectus will spell out the exact carve‑outs, but absent a special waiver, you should expect the standard 180‑day restriction.
Impact on post‑IPO price
The lock‑up creates a built‑in supply constraint that typically supports the share price in the early trading weeks because the market knows that a sizable block of insider stock cannot be dumped immediately. Traders often price this “float‑restriction premium” into the IPO, resulting in a modest initial pop or at least a stable opening range. However, once the lock‑up expires, the market anticipates a potential “lock‑up unwind”—a wave of sell orders that can depress the price, especially if the sponsor or insiders hold a large proportion of the float (common in SPACs). As a rule of thumb, monitor the lock‑up expiry calendar (usually the 180‑day mark) and look for a dip in liquidity and a rise in short‑interest around that date. If you’re long GSRF, consider trimming exposure or tightening stops a few weeks before the lock‑up lifts; if you’re short, the unwind can be a catalyst for a short‑term bounce. In the meantime, the current 180‑day lock‑up gives the stock a relatively clean runway to establish a trading range without immediate insider pressure.