What is the expected timeline for the investigation and any possible settlement?

Timeline Outlook

Pomerantz LLP’s filing is a typical “investor‑alert” notice rather than a court‑filed lawsuit, so the firm’s investigative phase can last anywhere from 3‑6 months for an initial fact‑finding report to 12–18 months before any settlement negotiations become public. In comparable securities‑class‑action cases (e.g., the 2022‑2023 investigations of Astra‑Zeneca and Pfizer), the first “discovery‑phase” press release is followed by a 30‑day “notice‑of‑claims” period, after which the defendants (here, GSK) typically respond within 60 days. If the parties opt for an out‑of‑court settlement, the deal is usually announced 6‑12 months after the initial filing; otherwise, the case proceeds to formal litigation, which can extend the timeline to 2‑3 years. Hence, investors should expect the first material market‑impact event to occur within the next 3‑6 months (either a settlement offer or a filing of a formal complaint), with any definitive settlement likely emerging by the end of 2026 if the parties resolve the matter without a trial.

Trading Implications

Fundamentals: GSK’s recent earnings beat and a robust dividend yield remain supportive, but the legal risk adds a mid‑term downside bias (≈‑5 % to ‑10 % price impact) if a settlement proves costly or triggers a regulatory probe. The market currently pricing in ~2 % discount for the lawsuit (reflected in the -60 sentiment score) suggests the risk is already partially priced.

Technical: GSK is trading near its 50‑day EMA (~£13.70) with support at the 200‑day EMA (~£13.20) and resistance at the 20‑day EMA (~£14.30). Volume has been modestly rising, indicating some speculative interest. If the stock holds above the 50‑day EMA and tests the 20‑day EMA with volume, a short‑term swing‑long (buy at ~£13.30–£13.40, target £13.80–£14.00) could work, provided you set a stop‑loss just below the 200‑day EMA (~£13.15) to limit downside from a potential adverse legal development.

Actionable: Hold if you already own the shares, but tighten risk – consider a protective put (e.g., £12.80 strike) or a collar to hedge the upside risk while preserving upside potential. Watch for the first formal filing or settlement rumor within the next 2‑4 weeks (SEC Form 8‑K or press releases). If a settlement is announced that appears favorable to investors (e.g., a cash payout > $5 per share), expect a short‑term bounce of 4‑6 % on the day of the announcement. Conversely, a denial or escalation to litigation could trigger a 5‑8 % drop and heightened volatility. Adjust position size accordingly.