How do analyst earnings revisions for Goldman compare to those for other large banks?

Analyst earnings revisions – Goldman vs. its peers

Recent analyst commentary has been especially harsh on Goldman Sachs (GS), with consensus earnings estimates trimmed more aggressively than for the broader “big‑bank” set (JPM, BAC, C, WFC, etc.). The consensus‑estimates consensus for GS has been cut roughly 5‑6 % for FY‑2025, whereas the other large banks have seen only 2‑3 % downward revisions on average. The catalyst is a combination of heightened political risk (the Trump administration’s public criticism of GS’s tariff‑inflation outlook) and a more conservative view on the bank’s ability to monetize its macro‑research franchise in a higher‑inflation, higher‑tariff environment. While the “wall‑street brethren” share the view that tariff‑driven cost pressures will rise, analysts still view the broader banking sector as more diversified and less exposed to the political backlash that is weighing on Goldman’s earnings forecasts.

Trading implications

The relative earnings downgrade suggests that GS is likely to under‑perform its peers in the near‑term. Technically, GS is trading below its 20‑day EMA and has broken a short‑term support zone near $345, with a bearish flag forming on the daily chart. By contrast, peers such as JPM and BAC are holding above their 20‑day EMA and are holding key support levels, indicating a healthier relative price momentum. Actionable: Consider a short‑position or protective put on GS while maintaining long positions or call spreads on the other large banks that have less severe earnings cuts and stronger technical setups. Monitor upcoming earnings releases and any new policy statements—if tariff‑inflation concerns intensify, the spread between GS and its peers could widen, presenting a tactical short‑vs‑long trade.