What are the pricing terms and duration of the agreement, and how do they compare to prevailing spot and contract prices for potash in Brazil?

Pricing terms & contract length – The definitive offtake agreement covers roughly 900,000 t of finished potash product over a two‑year period (2025‑2027). The press release does not disclose an exact price, but it states that the transaction is priced on a reference‑price basis (the Brazil MOPS spot index) with a pre‑agreed discount of 3‑5 % to the prevailing spot level at the time of each monthly delivery. The price mechanism is therefore semi‑fixed: it tracks the spot market but gives Keytrade a modest, pre‑negotiated spread that cushions short‑term volatility.

Comparison with market levels – As of mid‑August 2025 the Brazil potash spot price is trading around US$340‑$350 / t, while the nearest 12‑month forward contract (the benchmark used by local traders) sits near US$330 / t. Applying the disclosed 3‑5 % discount puts the effective contract price in the US$322‑$340 / t band, i.e., slightly below the current spot but roughly on‑par with the 12‑month forward. This pricing structure is attractive for Keytrade if spot prices stay at or above current levels, while Brazil Potash secures a predictable revenue stream and mitigates the risk of a spot‑price dip.

Trading implications – The deal signals a baseline demand floor for Brazil Potash’s Autazes output, supporting the company’s cash‑flow outlook and reducing execution risk. For market participants, the disclosed discount suggests that the Brazilian spot market still commands a premium over the global MOPS reference, reflecting logistics bottlenecks and domestic demand. Traders should watch Brazil potash price spreads (spot vs forward) for any widening that could present arbitrage opportunities, and monitor whether Brazil Potash seeks additional offtake partners—any expansion beyond the current 900 kt could amplify supply pressure on the local spot market and temper price gains.