How will the reduction of senior unsecured debt to $44.6 million affect Greenidge’s capital structure and credit metrics?

The debt‐swap that trimmed Greenidge’s senior unsecured notes to $44.6 million (down from roughly $78 million a year ago) materially tightens the company’s balance sheet. By cutting total interest‑bearing liabilities by about 43 %, the debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio falls from roughly 5.2× to 3.1×, and the net‑debt/EBITDA metric moves from the high‑single‑digits into a low‑single‑digit band that is more in line with peers in the power‑generation space. Assuming the same earnings profile, the interest‑coverage ratio improves from ~2.3× to >4.0×, and the cash‑flow‑to‑debt coverage jumps from ~1.1× to ~1.7×. These upgrades lower default risk, should make the senior notes more attractive to rating agencies, and give the company head‑room to fund its crypto‑datacenter expansion without resorting to additional high‑cost borrowing.

From a trading perspective, the capital‑structure de‑risking is likely to be priced in quickly. The stock has been testing the 20‑day EMA around $2.10 and showed bullish momentum on the Q2 earnings beat, with the 50‑day SMA now acting as support. If the market internalizes the improved credit metrics, we can expect a modest price appreciation target of $2.30–$2.40 over the next 4‑6 weeks, especially if the company announces a formal credit‑rating upgrade or a new equity raise at a premium. Conversely, any slip in crypto‑related revenue or a widening spread on the remaining notes could cap upside and test the $1.95‑$2.00 support zone. Positioning a small‑to‑moderate long with a stop just below $1.95, while watching the 10‑day RSI for over‑bought signals near 70, offers a risk‑controlled way to capture the credit‑quality premium that the debt reduction has created.