Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) lifted its FY 2025 revenue outlook after reporting a 15% YoY Q2 revenue jump to $344.3 million and a 12% rise in resident count. The company now projects full‑year revenue in the high‑$1.3 billion range, roughly a 12‑14% increase versus the prior guidance. Wall‑Street analysts, on average, had been forecasting FY 2025 revenue of about $1.25 billion (≈ 10% growth) and earnings of $0.90‑$1.00 per share. The new guidance therefore runs 6‑8% above the consensus revenue estimate and 10‑15% above the earnings estimate, implying a material upside to the current consensus view.
From a fundamentals standpoint, the raised guidance reflects strong organic growth in the LTC segment and the successful integration of recent acquisitions—both of which should improve margin expansion and cash‑flow generation. The upside to consensus suggests that the market may still be under‑pricing the stock relative to its revised outlook. Technically, GRDN has been trading near its 50‑day moving average and has formed a modest upward‑trend channel; a breakout above the recent high of $12.30 could trigger a short‑term rally as analysts upgrade their models and institutional buyers add positions. Conversely, a pull‑back toward the 50‑day average (~$11.50) would offer a lower‑risk entry point with upside potential if the market digests the upgraded guidance.
Trading implication: With guidance comfortably ahead of analyst consensus, the stock is positioned for a short‑to‑medium‑term upside. Consider taking a long position on any dip near the 50‑day average or, if already long, adding on pull‑backs while keeping a stop just below the recent support at $11.30. Anticipate upward pressure if the company delivers the projected top‑line growth, which could prompt further analyst upgrades and a price‑target lift.