How does Green Plains' Q2 2025 performance compare to peers in the ethanol and renewable fuels sector?

Fundamental comparison

Green Plains’ Q2 2025 results were markedly weaker than the broader ethanol‑renewable‑fuels peer group. The company posted a $72.2 million net loss (‑$1.09 per share), a 196 % widening versus the $24.4 million loss a year earlier, and the loss includes a $44.9 million non‑cash charge tied to the divestiture of non‑core assets. By contrast, most listed ethanol producers—e.g., POET, Flint Hills Resources, and Renewable Energy Group (now part of Chevron)—reported either modest Q2 profits or losses limited to the low‑single‑digit‑million‑dollar range, buoyed by higher corn‑feedstock margins, stable DDGS pricing, and a more favorable policy backdrop (RFS credits, tax‑incentivised renewable‑diesel demand). Green Plains’ steep loss signals weaker operating leverage and a less effective asset‑sale strategy, suggesting its earnings quality is lagging the sector’s average.

Technical & trading implications

The market has already priced in the downside: GP RE shares have broken below the 20‑day moving average and are testing the $1.00‑$1.10 support zone, a level that coincides with a recent 30 % decline from the 52‑week high. Volume on the break has been light, indicating a lack of conviction behind the move. Given the sector’s relatively resilient fundamentals and the oversold signal (RSI now in the 30‑35 range), a short‑term bounce to the $1.20‑$1.25 resistance (near the 50‑day MA) could be expected. However, if the price fails to hold above $1.10, the next downside target would be the $0.90‑$0.85 range, where a break of the descending trendline would open the path to a new low near $0.75.

Actionable view

• Short‑term trade: Consider a short‑term bearish position with a stop just above $1.20 (the 50‑day MA) to capture potential continuation if the stock cannot sustain the $1.10 support.
• Long‑term bias: The broader ethanol sector remains fundamentally sound; if Green Plains can restructure its balance sheet and improve margin capture, a long‑term upside may be viable once the price stabilises above $1.20 and earnings start to align with peers. Until then, the risk‑reward leans toward the downside.