How will the projected 8.1 million unit sales by 2030 affect Google’s (GOOGL) revenue forecasts for its Nest line? | GOOGL (Aug 13, 2025) | Candlesense
GOOGL

How will the projected 8.1 million unit sales by 2030 affect Google’s (GOOGL) revenue forecasts for its Nest line?

Fundamental impact

Parks Associates now expects the global smart‑thermostat market to hit 8.1 million units in 2030, generating > $1.1 bn of annual revenue. Google’s Nest is one of the three leading brands, and historically it has captured roughly 30‑35 % of total shipments. If that share holds, Nest’s 2030 volume would be about 2.7 million devices – a ≈ 30 % increase versus the 2025 baseline. Assuming Nest’s average selling price (ASP) stays near the current $150‑$180 range, the segment would generate $400‑$500 million in net revenue for Google, up from roughly $250 million in 2025. Because Nest is reported under “Other revenue” (hardware, services, and cloud integration), the incremental hardware line will lift Google’s “Other revenue” growth rate to mid‑single‑digit percentages in FY2030, well above the flat‑to‑low‑single‑digit growth the segment has delivered in recent years.

Market dynamics & technical view

The smart‑thermostat market is still early‑stage, with a CAGR of ~15 % implied by the 8.1 M‑unit forecast. Nest’s competitive edge—deep integration with Google Assistant, data‑driven energy‑saving algorithms, and the “Works with Google Home” ecosystem—should protect its market‑share against Honeywell (Resideo) and ecobee. Moreover, the hardware‑plus‑software model adds higher‑margin recurring revenue (energy‑usage analytics, subscription‑based “Nest Protect” services) that can improve gross margins on the segment. On the chart, GOOGL has been trading ≈ 30 % above its 200‑day moving average and has broken a four‑month high; the upside is still priced in, but the new forecast adds a ~3‑4 % earnings‑per‑share (EPS) uplift by FY2030, which is not fully reflected in the current valuation (P/E ≈ 28×).

Actionable insight

The Nest projection adds a material, positive catalyst to Google’s long‑term revenue mix and should be incorporated into earnings models as a +3 % to “Other revenue” CAGR through 2030. For investors with a 12‑month horizon, the upside is modest but the fundamental tailwind supports a bullish stance—either a buy on pull‑back if GOOGL dips below its 200‑day MA, or a hold with a modest price‑target upgrade (+5‑7 %) reflecting the newly‑added hardware growth. The risk remains the potential price‑compression on hardware or share‑loss to rivals, so a stop‑loss around 5 % below the entry point is prudent.

Other Questions About This News

How might the forecast influence analyst price targets and valuation multiples for GOOGL and other peers? What is the expected market share split among Google Nest, Honeywell Home (Resideo), and ecobee over the next five years? Will the $1.1 billion revenue forecast for smart thermostats translate into higher earnings per share for the listed companies? How does the growth trajectory compare to previous years’ adoption rates and to other IoT home‑automation segments? What supply‑chain or component constraints could impact the ability of manufacturers to meet the forecasted demand? Are there any regulatory or energy‑policy developments that could accelerate or hinder smart thermostat adoption? What is the potential impact on related product lines (e.g., smart lighting, home security) and the broader ecosystem partners? Could the projected market expansion lead to increased competitive pressure, prompting price wars or accelerated innovation? What macro‑economic factors (e.g., consumer spending, housing market trends) could affect the accuracy of the forecast?