How will the ruling affect Alphabet's revenue forecasts and stock price?

Fundamental impact: The ruling strips Google of its ability to lock in exclusive search agreements on browsers and devices—a cornerstone of the “search‑only” monopoly the FTC has been targeting. While Chrome remains in the ecosystem, the loss of default‑search leverage will likely erode incremental search‑traffic gains and, by extension, the higher‑margin ad inventory that drives roughly 60 % of Alphabet’s revenue. Analysts are already penciling in a modest downward revision to 2025‑2026 revenue growth (≈0.5‑1 ppt) as the company must now compete on merit rather than contractual exclusivity. The effect on near‑term earnings should be limited—Google still enjoys a dominant market share—but the guidance cadence for the next two years will probably be softened, especially if the FTC or state regulators pursue further remedies.

Market reaction & technical outlook: The news sparked an immediate negative sentiment swing (‑35 on the news score) and pushed GOOGL off its recent trading range, testing the $140‑$145 support zone on the daily chart. A break below the 20‑day EMA and the $140 level would open the door to the next downside target near $130, with the 50‑day SMA acting as a potential stop‑loss for long positions. Conversely, the stock retains strong buying pressure above the 50‑day SMA, and a bounce off $147–$150 could signal a short‑term rebound as the market digests the ruling’s limited immediate earnings impact.

Actionable take‑away: For risk‑averse investors, consider trimming exposure or placing protective puts around the $140–$145 area, anticipating a modest correction as revenue forecasts are revised. Momentum traders could look for a short‑term bounce above $150 to capture a quick scalp, but should watch for any earnings‑release commentary—if Alphabet signals a less‑severe revenue impact, the stock could quickly recover to its prior up‑trend.