When is the investigation expected to conclude and what milestones should we monitor for further market impact?
Expected timeline
HalperâŻSadehâs shareholderârights investigations usually run to the point where the firm either files a formal SEC complaint or secures a settlement. Given the AugâŻ18âŻ2025 filing date, the firm will need time to gather evidence, interview corporate officers and coordinate with the SEC. In comparable cases, the first public filing or a âletter of intentâ to sue appears withinâŻ90â120âŻdays. Expect a substantive developmentâeither a SEC âletterâ to Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY) or a preâcomplaint filingâby lateâŻQ4âŻ2025 (midâDecemberâŻ2025), with a possible final complaint or settlement announcement in earlyâŻ2026 (Q1).
Milestones to watch
| Date (approx.) | Milestone | Market impact cue |
|---|---|---|
| LateâŻNovâŻ2025 â earlyâŻDecâŻ2025 | HalperâŻSadeh submits a âletter of intentâ or SEC comment request to GNTY, DALN, MRC | Initial volatility spike; price may break shortâterm support/resistance as investors priceâin potential litigation risk. |
| MidâDecâŻ2025 | GNTYâs quarterly earnings (DecâŻ2025) â first filing with the investigation disclosed in the 10âK/10âQ | If the company acknowledges the probe, expect a downward bias; a cleanâhand statement could cushion the slide. |
| LateâŻDecâŻ2025 â JanâŻ2026 | Formal SEC complaint or settlement offer filed by HalperâŻSadeh | A formal complaint typically triggers a sharp sellâoff (10â15âŻ% onâday) and heightened shortâcovering; a settlement offer may cap the downside and create a bounceâback. |
| FebâŻ2026 | Shareholderâclass action or court hearing on the case | If the case proceeds to litigation, the stock may stay compressed; a dismissal or favorable settlement can spark a rebound. |
Trading implications
- Shortâterm: Keep a tight stopâloss (ââŻ3â4âŻ% below current lows) as the market digests the investigationâs first public move in lateâŻ2025.
- Technical watch: GNTY is currently testing the $30â$32 range; a break below $30 on heavy volume would signal the start of a downside trend, while a hold above $32 could indicate resilience.
- Positioning: Consider a defensive put spread (long put at $28, short put at $25) to profit from potential downside while limiting risk, or stay flat and add on the dip if the investigation stalls or a settlement is reached.
Monitoring the above dates and corporate disclosures will give you early warning of any material price moves and help you calibrate risk exposure accordingly.