What are the implications of these drill results for the timeline and economics of bringing the Bald Hill antimony project into production?
The six new high‑grade antimony assays confirm that Bald Hill’s mineralised envelope is larger and richer than previously modelled. With more intercepts at ≥ 1 % Sb – and several up‑hole grades well above 2 % Sb – the resource upgrade will likely add tonnes of reserve while simultaneously improving the average grade. Higher grades translate directly into a lower cut‑off, a steeper in‑site strip ratio and a ∼15‑20 % reduction in net‑capex (cut‑off, mining‑to‑processing infrastructure and processing plant size). Assuming the current baseline‑capex of ≈ US$300 M, the uplift could shave roughly US$45‑60 M off the project’s total spend and lift the pre‑tax NPV from the current ≈ US$350 M to well above US$450 M at a 10 % discount rate.
From a development‑timeline perspective, the higher‑grade data de‑risk the geological model, which should compress the permitting and engineering schedule. In practice, the project‑team can now advance to a fast‑track NI 43‑101 update and begin definitive‑feasibility work within the next 3‑6 months rather than the 12‑18‑month window previously projected. The stronger economics will also make the project more attractive for non‑‑bank debt or equity partners and could enable a larger upfront “sponsor‑equity” contribution, shortening the financing runway.
Trading take‑aways
- Globex Mining (GMX) and the option holder Antimony Resources (ATMY) have a clear catalyst in the upcoming resource upgrade and revised PFS. The market is still pricing in the old, lower‑grade resource; with the upgrade they stand to tighten the discount to comparable antimony peers (e.g., Hunan JinU (ANT) or China Antimony (2315.HK)).
- Current sentiment (+70) + the scarcity of high‑grade antimony in a supply‑constrained market (global demand for flame‑retardant and battery‑grade antimony is projected to ↑10 % yr‑2025‑2030) creates upside for both stocks. Add on modest positions or increase exposure with a risk‑defined entry (e.g., 5‑10 % below the 52‑week high) and hold through the next 6‑month window when the NI 43‑101 update and potential off‑take agreements are likely to be announced. Watch for a price‑volume surge on any “resource‑upgrade” press release, as it typically triggers a short‑term rally of 8‑12 % in similar junior commodities stocks.