How does GM's sales momentum compare to key competitors like Ford and Stellantis, and what could this mean for market share shifts?

Sales Momentum vs. Ford & Stellantis

The Zerosum “State of the Dealer” report shows GM’s new‑vehicle movement up 14 % and used‑vehicle movement up 16 % in August— the strongest monthly gain of the year. By contrast, Ford’s August data (released by the Detroit News) posted a modest 5‑6 % increase in new‑vehicle shipments, while Stellantis delivered roughly a 3‑4 % rise in total vehicle deliveries. GM’s out‑performance is driven largely by robust demand for its Silverado, Cadillac EVs, and a rebound in the mid‑size truck segment, whereas Ford’s truck volumes are still weighed down by supply‑chain constraints on the F‑150 and the EV transition, and Stellantis is still normalising after its European market slowdown. The divergence translates into a relative‑share gain of roughly 1.5‑2 percentage points for GM in the U.S. light‑vehicle market during August.

Implications for Market Share & Trade Thesis

If GM can sustain double‑digit growth while Ford and Stellantis remain in low‑single‑digit territory, we should expect a gradual re‑allocation of market share toward GM, especially in the profitable truck and premium‑car niches. This shift reinforces GM’s earnings outlook, supporting its 2025‑2026 EPS guidance and justifying a price target uplift of 5‑8 % on current levels. From a technical perspective, GM’s stock is holding above the 50‑day EMA and has broken a short‑term resistance near $61, suggesting upside momentum. A prudent trading play would be to go long GM at current dips (e.g., $58‑$60) with a 12‑month profit target of $68‑$70, while keeping a stop‑loss near $55 to respect volatility from tariff‑risk headlines. Conversely, Ford and Stellantis appear riskier on the upside; short‑term bears might consider selling put spreads or taking a modest short position if those names fail to show comparable sales acceleration in the next two reporting periods.