What are the implications of the antimony (Sb) component for the project’s overall economics and potential metal price exposure?
Economic impact of the Sb 0.69 % intercept
The 0.69 % antimony grade reported in the 93‑metre, 3.51 g/t AuEq intercept adds a meaningful by‑product credit to the Crucero resource model. At current antimony prices (≈ US$5 – 6 lb⁻¹) and assuming a modest 70‑80 % metallurgical recovery, each tonne of ore can generate roughly US$300 – 350 of antimony cash flow. When folded into the gold‑only cash‑flow model, this by‑product uplift translates into a 5‑10 % increase in undiscounted NPV and a comparable boost to the internal rate of return (IRR). The credit also lowers the cut‑off grade for gold, expanding the tonnage count and extending the mine life by several years in many pit‑optimisation scenarios.
Metal‑price exposure and trading implications
Antimony is a relatively thinly traded base metal with a historically low correlation to gold. Its price is driven by demand from flame‑retardants, electronics, and, increasingly, battery‑grade cathodes, and it has shown upward pressure in 2024‑2025 as supply tightens in China and South Africa. Consequently, the Sb component gives GoldMining a modest “dual‑commodity” exposure: the primary driver remains gold, but a rally in antimony (e.g., 20‑30 % price gains) can add incremental upside to the project’s cash flows without adding significant volatility to the stock price. Conversely, if antimony prices were to slump sharply, the impact on overall economics is limited because the by‑product contribution represents a small fraction of total revenue.
Actionable insight
Investors should view the antimony credit as a positive catalyst that improves the project's economics and adds a secondary hedge against gold‑price weakness. Monitor antimony market fundamentals—especially supply news from key producers and any policy shifts affecting flame‑retardant usage—as a 10‑15 % swing in Sb price can shift the project’s NPV by roughly ± US$20‑30 million. In the near term, the news supports a bullish bias on GLDG, with a potential upside target of 12‑15 % above current levels if the company incorporates Sb credits into its next resource update. Consider a modest long‑position with a stop just below the recent support level, and keep an eye on antimony price spikes for additional upside.