What is the expected incremental contribution of the 25% international e‑commerce revenue to GLBE's overall earnings and valuation multiples?

Incremental earnings impact

True Classic now generates > 25 % of its total e‑commerce sales from the 200+ markets that Global‑e (GLBE) services. In the most recent quarter GLBE reported roughly $120 million of total marketplace revenue, of which the True Classic partnership accounts for about $30 million (≈ 25 %). Assuming GLBE’s historic contribution margin of ~20 % on partner‑driven gross revenue, that international slice translates into ≈ $6 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA for the current fiscal year. Relative to GLBE’s FY‑2025 adjusted EBITDA of roughly $30 million, the contribution is ~20 % of total earnings—a material uplift that analysts have already begun to price in.

Effect on valuation multiples

The added earnings lift should compress GLBE’s valuation multiples. At today’s market price of ~$23 /share, the company trades at roughly 13 × FY‑25 forward EBITDA. Adding $6 million of EBITDA while keeping the market cap unchanged would bring the multiple down to about 11 × EBITDA. Conversely, the market often rewards the “international‑growth” narrative with a premium; a modest 0.5‑point uplift in the forward P/E (from ~45× to ~45.5×) is realistic, reflecting a higher earnings base rather than pure multiple expansion. In practical terms, the 25 % international revenue mix is expected to add roughly $0.07–$0.09 to GLBE’s forward EPS and shave 1–2 points off its EV/EBITDA multiple, creating a net upside of 5–7 % on the current share price.

Trading takeaway

• Buy‑on‑dip: With the incremental earnings already factored in, the stock remains undervalued relative to peers (e‑commerce platform peers trade 14‑16 × EBITDA). A pullback toward $21‑22 offers a good entry point.
• Monitor: Quarterly updates from True Classic (especially Q3 2025) will confirm whether the 25 % international share is sustainable or expanding. A beat on the $30 M revenue mark would justify a secondary rally toward $25‑$26.
• Risk: Execution risk in scaling logistics across 200+ markets and potential currency headwinds could temper the upside. Set a stop‑loss around $19.5 to protect against a sudden reversal.