How will the $200 million share repurchase affect Global‑e’s earnings per share and valuation multiples?

A $200 million buy‑back will shrink Global‑e’s share count, which lifts the “head‑count” denominator in the EPS formula. With net income remaining unchanged, EPS should rise roughly in proportion to the percentage of shares retired (≈ $200 M ÷ current market‑cap). For a $1.5 bn market cap, a $200 M repurchase represents about a 13 % reduction in shares, meaning EPS could jump 13‑15 % on a “clean‑‑price” basis. Because EPS moves higher while the price‑to‑earnings (P/E) multiple is still quoted off the same market price, the P/E will compress modestly – the earnings boost offsets the price rise, leaving the ratio near its pre‑buy‑back level unless the market adds a premium for the reduced supply.

From a valuation standpoint, the repurchase shrinks the equity base and improves return‑on‑equity (ROE), which can re‑price the stock upward as investors re‑assess the firm’s capital efficiency. In practice, the market typically rewards a well‑executed buy‑back with a short‑term price rally, especially in a sector where growth expectations are strong. Technically, GLBE’s price is likely to find support near the recent swing‑high (≈ $45) and could test the next resistance around $48–$50 if the buy‑back is viewed as a confidence signal.

Trading implication: The buy‑back is a bullish catalyst; a modest long‑position entered on any pull‑back to $44–$45 offers upside to $48–$50, while a short‑side would need a clear break below $42 with volume to confirm that the market is discounting the repurchase’s earnings‑uplift. Keep an eye on any earnings releases—if Q2 net income outperforms, the combined effect of higher EPS and the buy‑back could drive the stock to fresh highs.