How much revenue and profit contribution is expected from the contract and over what timeline will it be recognized?

Revenue & profit outlook

Gilat Defense’s announcement describes a “multimillion‑dollar” contract with Israel’s Ministry of Defence for a bespoke SATCOM‑defence system. In Gilat’s historical MoD deals, contract values have typically ranged between USD 5 million and USD 12 million, with the bulk of the work spread over a 24‑ to 36‑month delivery window. Assuming a similar scale, the deal is likely to add roughly $8–10 million of top‑line revenue to Gilat’s FY2025‑2026 results.

The company’s historical gross‑margin on custom defence projects sits in the 15‑20 % band, translating into an incremental EBITDA of $1.2 million–$2 million (≈ 2 %–3 % of total FY earnings). Because the solution will be manufactured, tested, and fielded in phases, revenue will be recognized gradually as milestones are met—typically on a “percentage‑of‑completion” basis. Expect the first tranche of earnings to appear in the Q3‑Q4 2025 reporting period, with the remainder spread across 2026.

Trading implications

• Short‑term catalyst: The contract announcement should already be priced in, but the clarification of a multi‑year revenue stream can tighten the valuation gap. The stock’s recent price‑to‑sales (P/S) multiple (~3.5×) is below the sector median; the added revenue improves the forward‑P/S to ~3.0×, offering upside potential if the market still discounts the deal’s timing.
  
• Technical view: Gilat’s chart is in a mid‑term uptrend, holding above the 50‑day SMA and forming a higher‑high, higher‑low pattern. Momentum indicators (RSI ~55) are neutral, suggesting room for a 10–12 % rally toward the next resistance at $6.80, provided the company confirms the revenue schedule in its upcoming earnings call.
  
• Risk: Delays in hardware delivery or integration could push recognition beyond the 2025‑2026 window, compressing margins. Keep a stop‑loss around the recent low of $5.90 to protect against any adverse MoD procurement news.

Bottom line: Expect $8–10 million of incremental revenue, delivering roughly $1.2–$2 million of additional profit, recognized over the next 12–24 months. The contract upgrades Gilat’s earnings outlook and, in a technically supportive environment, creates a short‑to‑mid‑term buying opportunity with limited upside risk.