Answer Overview
- What the press release tells us: Griffon Corporation reported third‑quarter fiscal‑2025 revenue of $613.6 million, which is 5 % lower than the $647.8 million it generated in the same quarter a year earlier.
- Missing piece: The release does not provide any information about consensus revenue expectations or individual analyst estimates for this quarter.
Because the news excerpt you supplied contains only the company’s reported numbers and no third‑party forecasts, we cannot directly say whether the 5 % decline was ahead of, in line with, or behind what Wall Street analysts were expecting.
Below is a more detailed explanation of what would be needed to make that comparison and the typical implications of a 5 % decline in the context of the rest of the results.
1. What We Know From the Announcement
| Metric | Q3 FY2025 (reported) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $613.6 M | ‑5 % vs. $647.8 M |
| Net loss | $120.1 M (‑$2.65 per share) | – |
| One‑time charge | $217.2 M (‑$4.69 per share) for Hun‑related impairment | – |
The headline number that the question focuses on is the 5 % revenue contraction.
2. Why Consensus Expectations Matter
- Consensus Revenue Forecast: This is usually derived from the average of the estimates of a group of sell‑side analysts (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv). It serves as the “street” expectation that investors compare the actual results against.
- Analyst Estimates: Individual analysts may have a range of forecasts (high, low, median). A company’s guidance, if provided, is also compared against these numbers.
When a company’s actual revenue deviates significantly from the consensus, it often triggers:
- Price movement (up if the result beats, down if it misses)
- Re‑rating of the stock (e.g., analysts may shift from “Hold” to “Sell” or vice‑versa)
- Follow‑up commentary from analysts about the drivers (e.g., pricing pressure, volume decline, macro environment)
3. How to Find the Consensus/Analyst Estimates
If you need the exact numbers, you can look them up in any of the following sources:
| Source | Typical Access Method |
|---|---|
| Bloomberg Terminal | EQUITY <ticker> FA → “Earnings Estimates” tab |
| FactSet | Company profile → “Estimates” |
| Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters) | Company’s “Consensus Estimates” page |
| S&P Capital IQ | “Consensus” tab on the company page |
| Investor Relations / Press Releases | Sometimes Griffon will quote “expected revenue of $X–$Y million” in its guidance |
These platforms will show the median or average revenue estimate for the quarter and often the standard deviation (i.e., how tightly analysts agree).
4. Interpreting a 5 % Decline in Context
Even without the exact consensus figure, we can outline a few logical scenarios:
| Scenario | Potential Market Reaction |
|---|---|
| Consensus expected a slight decline (e.g., 2–3 %) | The 5 % drop could be viewed as a miss, potentially prompting a modest share‑price decline and lower analyst ratings. |
| Consensus expected a larger decline (e.g., 6–8 %) | Griffon would have beat revenue expectations, which might cushion the impact of the large net loss and possibly lead to a neutral or slightly positive reaction. |
| Consensus expected flat or growth | The 5 % contraction would be a significant miss, likely resulting in a sharper price drop and a wave of downward revisions. |
| No consensus (or wide dispersion) | Investors may focus more on guidance and the reasons behind the decline (e.g., the “Hun” impairment charge) rather than the raw percentage. |
Given the accompanying $217 M one‑time impairment, analysts are likely to emphasize the quality of earnings alongside the revenue trend. Even a modest revenue miss could be overshadowed by the sizable loss, prompting a broader reassessment of Griffon’s profitability outlook.
5. Bottom‑Line Answer to Your Question
How does the 5 % revenue decline compare to consensus expectations and analyst estimates?
Based solely on the information provided in the press release, we cannot determine how the 5 % revenue decline stacks up against consensus forecasts or analyst estimates. The release does not include any reference to street expectations, nor does it mention the company’s own guidance for the quarter. To answer this question definitively, you would need to retrieve the consensus revenue estimate for Griffon’s fiscal‑2025 third quarter from a financial data service (e.g., Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv) or from a research note that aggregates analyst forecasts.
If you obtain that consensus figure, the comparison would be straightforward:
- Actual revenue = $613.6 M
- Consensus estimate = (value you retrieve)
- Difference = (Actual – Consensus) expressed as a dollar amount and as a percentage of the consensus.
That calculation would tell you whether Griffon beat, met, or missed revenue expectations, which in turn would help gauge the likely analyst and market reaction.
6. Next Steps for You
- Pull the consensus estimate from your preferred data provider for Q3 FY2025.
- Calculate the variance (both absolute and percentage) between $613.6 M and the consensus.
- Check analyst commentary (e.g., recent research notes, earnings call transcripts) to see how they interpret the revenue trend relative to expectations.
- Consider the broader context (the large impairment charge, net loss, any forward guidance) when assessing the overall market impact.
If you need assistance locating those consensus numbers or interpreting analyst notes once you have them, feel free to provide that data and I can help you analyze the comparison further.