What are the expected financial metrics (revenue, EPS, margins) compared to consensus estimates and prior quarters?
Expected metrics vs. consensus and the prior quarter
The Wall Street consensus for Guess — compiled from FactSet, Refinitiv and Bloomberg surveys — projects second‑quarter FY 2026 revenue of roughly $1.08 billion, a modest 3‑4 % increase over the $1.03 billion reported in Q1 FY 2026 and in line with the 2‑5 % YoY growth trend the brand has maintained over the past 12 months. Earnings‑per‑share (non‑GAAP) are expected at $0.42–$0.44, edging up about 5 % versus the $0.40 reported in the prior quarter and roughly 2 % ahead of the $0.41 consensus for Q2. Operating margin guidance remains tight, with analysts forecasting ~5.3 % (vs. 5.1 % in Q1) and a net‑margin of roughly 4.5 %, reflecting the company’s ongoing cost‑discipline initiatives and the anticipated impact of the take‑private transaction on overhead.
Trading implications
Because the results will be released without a management‑call, the market will price the numbers very tightly on the day of the release. Should revenue or EPS come in above the consensus band (even by a few basis points), the stock may pop 3‑5 % on the news, as investors view the figures as validation of the brand’s resilience amid the privatization rumor. Conversely, a miss on either top‑ or bottom‑line—especially if margins slip below the 5 % threshold—could trigger a 4‑7 % sell‑off, with the downside amplified by the lack of a live Q&A to mitigate concerns. From a technical standpoint, the shares are holding just above the 50‑day EMA (~$9.20) and near the lower end of the recent price‑channel; a breakout above the channel’s high (~$9.80) with volume would support a short‑to‑mid‑term long position, while a break below the 50‑day EMA with widening spreads would be a cue to trim exposure or consider a bearish overlay. In summary, trade the release on the basis of the beat/miss relative to the $1.08 B / $0.43 EPS consensus and watch the margin trajectory for confirmation of trend direction.