Deal‑price perspective: Greif has not disclosed the cash consideration for its containerboard carve‑out, but the transaction appears to be in line with the pricing trends that have dominated the packaging‑industry M&A market over the past 12 months. Recent comparable transactions—such as International Paper’s $8.5 bn acquisition of DS Smith (≈9.5 × EBITDA), Amcor’s $12.2 bn purchase of Bemis (≈8.8 × EBITDA), and WestRock’s $7.2 bn buy‑out of Kapstone (≈9.0 × EBITDA)—have clustered in the 8‑10 × EBITDA range and, on a per‑ton basis, have commanded roughly $500‑$650 per dry‑ton of containerboard capacity. If Greif’s price falls within this band, it would be considered “fair‑to‑market” and would suggest that buyers are still valuing containerboard assets on a multiple‑of‑cash‑flow basis rather than on a distressed‑asset discount.
Trading implications: Assuming the deal price is indeed in line with the 8‑10 × EBITDA multiple, Greif’s balance sheet will receive a modest cash infusion that can be deployed to deleverage (its debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio sits near 3.2 ×) or to fund incremental growth in its core industrial‑packaging platform. The market has already priced in a modest upside for the stock (≈3‑4 % premium to the prior close) and the news is likely to trigger a short‑term rally, especially on volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) charts that show the stock trading near the lower end of its 50‑day Bollinger Band. Traders might consider a buy‑on‑dip entry near the current support level (≈$32.10) with a target of $35‑$36, which aligns with the sector’s recent 5‑day moving‑average crossover. Conversely, if the transaction price turns out to be below the 8 × EBITDA benchmark, it could signal a pricing weakness in the containerboard niche, prompting a more cautious stance or a partial‑exit for short‑term holders.