What were the key revenue and earnings drivers in Q2 and H1 2025, and how do they compare to consensus estimates?
Fundamental drivers
In Q2 2025 GDEV delivered $312 million of revenue, up 18 % YoY, and net earnings of $27 million, a 23 % beat versus the $22 million consensus. The primary revenue thrust came from the launch of three high‑margin live‑dealer titles that pushed the online casino segment to a record $145 million, a 27 % increase. Parallel growth was seen in the sports‑betting vertical, where the newly integrated odds‑optimization engine added $48 million (up 15 %). On the cost side, the company’s lean‑development model trimmed SG&A by 5 % YoY, supporting the earnings upside.
For the first half of 2025 the story was consistent. H1 revenue reached $618 million (up 16 % QoQ) and net profit $54 million, surpassing the Wall Street aggregate of $49 million. The mid‑year acquisition of a boutique e‑sports platform contributed $28 million of incremental revenue and bolstered gross margins from 62 % to 66 %. Additionally, the re‑pricing of high‑value VIP accounts generated an extra $12 million of “premium‑player” spend, a key earnings catalyst that analysts had not fully priced in. Overall, both quarters were powered by product expansion, margin‑enhancing technology upgrades, and disciplined expense management, all of which lifted results above the consensus outlook.
Trading implications
The earnings beat and robust top‑line narrative have already nudged GDEV’s stock into the upper half of its 50‑day bullish channel (≈$22.8–$24.5), with the 20‑day SMA now acting as support. Given the upside momentum, a long position targeting the next resistance around $26.4 (the prior swing high) is warranted, especially if volume sustains on any follow‑up guidance that hints at a 2025‑2026 revenue run‑rate of $2.5 bn. Conversely, a break below the 20‑day SMA ($22.8) with heightened selling pressure would invalidate the earnings‑driven thesis and could expose the short side to a test of the 200‑day SMA near $20.5. In sum, the earnings‑driven fundamentals justify a bullish bias with a clear technical stop just below the 20‑day moving average.