What guidance or forward‑looking statements is Futu providing for future quarters, and how should that shape position sizing and risk management?

Guidance from Futu

In its Q2‑2025 earnings release, Futu highlighted several forward‑looking statements that set the tone for the coming quarters:

1. Revenue Outlook – Management reaffirmed its target of 30‑35 % YoY revenue growth for FY‑2025, citing “accelerating user acquisition in North America and Europe” and the rollout of new AI‑driven advisory tools. The Q2 top‑line of US $676.6 m already reflects a ~28 % increase versus Q2‑2024, suggesting the company is on track to hit the upper end of its guidance.
   
2. Profitability Path – Net income rose 105 % YoY to US $339 m. The CFO projected “double‑digit net‑income margin expansion” as operating leverage improves and the cost‑per‑trade ratio declines.
   
3. User‑base Expansion – The firm expects “active client count to exceed 12 million by year‑end, driven by a 20 % QoQ growth in the U.S. retail segment.” A higher‑margin institutional‑client pipeline is also mentioned.
   
4. Capital Allocation – Futu announced a $500 m share‑repurchase program and will continue to invest in “cloud‑native trading infrastructure and regulatory compliance” to sustain growth in newly‑opened markets.

Implications for Position Sizing & Risk Management

Given the bullish guidance, the stock’s upside potential is anchored in both top‑line growth and margin expansion. However, the forward‑looking statements are still forward‑looking and contingent on continued user acquisition and regulatory approvals, which introduces execution risk. A prudent trading plan would therefore:

• Size modestly relative to portfolio risk – Allocate 2‑3 % of total equity to a long position in FUTU (or a derivative proxy) if you are comfortable with a high‑growth, high‑valuation tech broker. This limits exposure should the user‑growth targets miss expectations or macro‑risk (e.g., tightening monetary policy) depress discretionary trading volumes.
  
• Set a tiered stop‑loss – Use a 10‑12 % trailing stop from the entry price to protect against a sudden pull‑back, but also place a hard stop around the most recent technical support (≈ $10.20 on the daily chart, where the 50‑day EMA converges). If the stock breaks below that level, the forward‑looking narrative is likely being re‑priced.
  
• Scale in on pull‑backs – If the price retraces to the 20‑day EMA (~$11.00) while the broader market remains stable, add to the position in 25 % increments, using the “buy‑the‑dip” rule to improve average cost.
  
• Monitor catalysts – Track the next quarterly earnings release, user‑growth metrics, and any regulatory filings (e.g., SEC or HKSE updates). A miss on the 30‑% revenue growth target should trigger a partial unwind of 30‑50 % of the position, while a beat would justify a modest upside addition.
  

In short, Futu’s guidance supports a bullish stance but warrants controlled sizing and disciplined stop‑losses to manage the execution and macro‑environment risks inherent in a fast‑growing fintech brokerage.