How will the $554 M after‑tax NPV and 41% IRR affect Fury’s valuation and implied share price versus current market levels?
Fundamental uplift
The PEA’s after‑tax NPV of C$554 million (discounted at 5 %) and an IRR of 41 % represents a very high‑margin, near‑term cash‑flow driver for Fury. Adding the NPV to the company’s existing market‑capitalisation (≈ C$460‑C$500 million at a ≈ C$2.45‑2.55 share price and ~190 M shares outstanding) pushes the “fair‑value” cap to roughly C$1.0 billion. That translates into an implied equity price of C$2.80‑C$3.00 per share, i.e. a 10‑15 % premium over today’s trading levels.
Technical context
Fury has been in a modest upward trend since the May‑June earnings beat, with the 10‑day EMA (+ 2.5 %) and the 20‑day EMA (+ 3 %) converging near the C$2.70 resistance line. Momentum indicators (RSI ~58, MACD bullish) suggest the stock still has room to rise before hitting over‑bought levels (> 70). The Eau Claire news is likely to trigger the next up‑move, potentially breaking the C$2.70 ceiling and testing the C$3.00 upside zone.
Actionable take‑away
* Long side – take a position at current levels (≈ C$2.50) with a price target of C$2.95‑C$3.05 (≈ 12‑18 % upside).
* Risk controls – set a stop just below the 20‑day EMA (~C$2.30) to protect against any funding‑delay or permitting surprises.
* Catalyst watch – monitor the upcoming permitting timeline (Q4 2025) and any capital‑expenditure updates; a delay could compress the upside, while a smooth path would reinforce the valuation boost.
In short, the Eau Claire PEA materially enhances Fury’s fundamentals and, when combined with a technically supportive price‑action, creates a clear buying opportunity with a modest upside target and disciplined downside protection.