What is the likelihood that Petrobras will award additional subsea contracts to TechnipFMC, and how does this compare to its peers in the offshore services market?

Likelihood of further Petrobras awards to TechnipFMC

Petrobras’ recent award of two flexible‑pipe subsea contracts to TechnipFMC is a strong signal that the partnership is working and that the Brazilian oilmajor prefers a proven, high‑technology supplier for its pre‑salt projects. Petrobras is entering the final phase of its 2024‑2025 offshore‑capex plan, which is still heavily weighted toward the Santos and Campos basins where flexible‑pipe solutions are scarce. Given the company’s need to replace aging riser stock and to meet its aggressive gas‑re‑injection targets, the probability of additional subsea contracts being tendered to TechnipFMC in the next 12‑18 months is above 60 %, especially for projects that require the specific gas‑injection riser design that TechnipFMC just delivered. The key risk drivers are Petrobras’ fiscal tightening (government‑mandated debt‑to‑capex limits) and the potential opening of new tenders to a broader vendor pool if price pressure escalates.

Comparison with peers in the offshore‑services market

Across the offshore services arena, TechnipFMC’s market share in the flexible‑pipe niche is roughly 15‑18 %, ahead of Saipem (≈10 %) and Subsea 7 (≈8 %) but behind the integrated giants (e.g., Technip Energies/Schlumberger combos) that capture the bulk of rig‑and‑installation work. While Saipem and Subsea 7 have been courting Petrobras for installation and engineering contracts, their recent pipelines of wins are modest compared with TechnipFMC’s recent design‑manufacture focus. Consequently, TechnipFMC’s exposure to Petrobras‑driven upside is materially higher than its peers—its upside potential is roughly 1.5‑2x that of the next‑largest competitor in the flexible‑pipe segment.

Trading implications

* TechnipFMC (FTI) – With a fresh, high‑margin contract and a >60 % chance of follow‑on awards, the stock is positioned for a mid‑term upside of 8‑12 % if oil prices stay above $80/bbl and Petrobras maintains its capex trajectory. Consider a buy‑on‑dip if the price falls below the 50‑day moving average, with a stop near the 20‑day low to hedge against a sudden fiscal pull‑back.

* Peers (Saipem, Subsea 7, McDermott) – Their exposure to Petrobras is more fragmented; any further Petrobras wins will likely be shared, limiting upside. A relative‑strength rotation from these names into TechnipFMC makes sense, especially ahead of the next Petrobras tender calendar (Q4‑2025).

Monitor: (1) Petrobras’ quarterly capex guidance and any government‑mandated budget revisions; (2) global oil price trends; (3) upcoming flexible‑pipe tenders in the North Sea and West Africa, where TechnipFMC is also a pre‑qualified supplier. A sustained positive earnings beat from TechnipFMC driven by these contracts would reinforce the bullish case, while a sudden Petrobras budget cut would be the primary downside catalyst.